Serbia’s 2026 outlook is best described as growth without full industrial recovery. MAT’s June forecast is strikingly balanced: total industrial production is projected to rise only 0.5%, manufacturing is expected to decline 1.0%, retail trade should grow 4.5% in real terms, goods exports 7.0% in euro terms, goods imports 8.5%, and consumer prices 3.5%December-on-December.
This is not a recessionary profile. It is a mixed-growth profile. Consumption remains resilient, exports are growing, the current account has improved in early 2026, and inflation remains broadly within the National Bank of Serbia’s target corridor. But the industrial base is not yet strong enough to validate a broad manufacturing-led expansion. The IMF’s latest review reinforces the moderated view, projecting Serbia’s GDP growth at about 2.8% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027after 2% growth in 2025. (IMF)
The first-quarter GDP structure shows the same pattern. Real GDP growth of 3.2% placed Serbia among Europe’s faster-growing economies, but gross value added fell 0.7% in industry and water/waste management and 5.1% in construction, while trade, transport, storage, accommodation and food services rose 4.9%. The economy is expanding, but services and consumption are doing more of the work than heavy industry.
Retail remains the strongest domestic support. April retail turnover was 8.3% higher in nominal terms and 5.6% higher in real terms, while real retail turnover in January–April rose 7.9%. MAT expects some moderation because of slower real-wage growth and tighter credit conditions, but still sees retail and wholesale trade as a stable support to domestic demand and likely one of the largest sources of GDP growth this year.
The external sector is more constructive than expected. Exports rose 8.2% in January–April while imports increased only 0.5%, cutting the goods deficit by 26.1%. But MAT’s full-year forecast of 8.5% import growth versus 7.0% export growth implies that this early improvement may narrow as energy, intermediate and investment imports recover.
The base-case projection for Serbia in 2026 is therefore a GDP growth rate around 2.8–3.2%, with inflation around 3.5–4.0%, export growth near 7%, and retail growth slowing from the January–April pace but remaining positive. The upside case requires three things: stable Pančevo refinery operations, continued automotive production growth and stronger EU demand. The downside case is built around energy shocks, weaker German industry, refinery disruption, slower FDI execution and renewed import pressure.
The most important investment message is that Serbia remains resilient, but resilience is not the same as broad acceleration. The economy has enough growth engines to outperform much of Europe, yet the composition of that growth is more fragile than the headline suggests. In 2026, Serbia’s macro story will be decided by the interaction between consumption, automotive exports, refinery continuity, energy prices and the pace at which announced technology investments become operating assets.
