MAT’s forecast for 2026 captures the contradiction in Serbia’s outlook. The report projects total industrial production growth of only 0.5%, with manufacturing down 1.0%, while consumer prices are expected to rise 3.5%, real retail trade by 4.5%, goods exports by 7.0%, and goods imports by 8.5%. These numbers suggest that Serbia can still grow, but not through a strong industrial cycle.
The forecast points to an economy supported by consumption, services, trade and selected export segments rather than broad manufacturing strength. Retail trade is expected to remain positive, exports are projected to grow, and imports will also rise. But manufacturing weakness creates a structural problem. Serbia needs industry to raise productivity, deepen exports and support higher wages without inflationary pressure.
A 1.0% decline in manufacturing would be especially important because manufacturing is the core of Serbia’s export-oriented development model. It is where FDI, industrial zones, supplier networks and EU demand meet. A weak manufacturing year would make growth more dependent on domestic demand, public spending and a few sectoral outliers.
The export forecast of 7.0% is positive, but it must be judged against import growth of 8.5%. Faster imports can reflect stronger investment and consumption. They can also widen the trade deficit if exports are not high-value enough. The forecast therefore keeps the external-balance question open.
Inflation at 3.5% is manageable, but it is not irrelevant. It reduces the room for aggressive monetary easing and affects real household income. Serbia can live with inflation near that level, but only if wage growth and productivity remain aligned.
The forecast describes a stable economy, not a transformed one. Serbia’s growth story in 2026 is likely to be respectable, but the country still needs a stronger industrial base. The next stage depends on whether automotive momentum, energy investment, domestic suppliers and technology projects can prevent manufacturing from becoming the weak link.
