Bank lending to Serbian companies has accelerated sharply in 2026, providing evidence of stronger domestic investment and working-capital demand even as companies remain heavily dependent on euro-linked financing.
Corporate loans reached about RSD 1.793 trillion at the end of July, compared with RSD 1.658 trillion at the end of 2025, an increase of about 8.2% in seven months.
The pace is significant in an economy where nominal inflation has fallen sharply and GDP growth remains in the mid-single digits.
It suggests businesses are increasing leverage faster than the underlying economy is expanding.
The more revealing feature is the currency structure.
Around RSD 1.409 trillion of corporate lending was foreign-currency denominated or indexed to foreign currencies at the end of July, while dinar lending stood at roughly RSD 385 billion.
That leaves close to four-fifths of corporate credit linked directly or indirectly to foreign currency.
Serbia’s stable exchange-rate regime has made such borrowing appear relatively low-risk. For companies with euro revenues, particularly exporters, that can be rational.
But it also means financial conditions in the euro area continue to matter deeply for Serbia even when the NBS keeps its own monetary policy unchanged.
There is also an important distinction between private companies and public enterprises.
Loans to public enterprises stood at about RSD 205.8 billion in July, below the RSD 223.8 billion recorded at the end of 2025.
That suggests the broader increase in corporate borrowing is not primarily being driven by state-controlled companies.
The development is encouraging if the new borrowing finances productive investment: factories, equipment, energy projects, logistics and export capacity.
It is less reassuring if the increase is largely financing inventories, refinancing existing liabilities or funding consumption-linked activity.
The NBS statistical bulletin does not provide enough information to make that distinction conclusively.
But the direction is clear.
At the same time that foreign direct investment has cooled, Serbia’s domestic banking system is supplying substantially more capital to the corporate sector.
That could mark the beginning of a more domestically financed growth model. It also transfers more of the investment-cycle risk onto corporate balance sheets and the banking system.
