Serbian business activity strengthened sharply in the second quarter, but exporters will need firmer demand from the European Union if the expansion is to develop into a sustained second-half recovery.
Revenue in Serbia’s non-financial business economy rose 11% from the first quarter of 2026 and 9.7% year on year, preliminary Statistical Office data showed.
Operating expenses increased 10.1% quarter on quarter and 7.8% annually, leaving revenue growth ahead of costs in both comparisons.
The figures suggest companies entered the second half with stronger turnover and a modest improvement in operating leverage. But Serbia’s close integration with European manufacturing supply chains means domestic corporate performance cannot be separated from demand in its principal export markets.
Automotive suppliers, metal processors, electrical-equipment producers and other manufacturers depend heavily on orders from EU industry. A prolonged slowdown there could reduce production volumes, weaken capacity utilisation and narrow the revenue-cost advantage recorded in the second quarter.
Service exporters, including ICT companies, may offer some diversification. ICT revenue rose 8.3% year on year and 9.9% from the first quarter, with quarterly expenditure growing more slowly at 5.7%.
Domestic consumption and infrastructure activity could also support turnover, but they may not fully offset weaker external orders for trade-exposed industries.
The second-quarter result therefore provides a favourable starting point rather than a guarantee of continued acceleration. Stronger exports would allow companies to spread fixed costs over larger sales volumes and support investment.
Without that external demand, Serbia’s corporate rebound risks becoming a short-lived rise in nominal turnover rather than the beginning of a broader production and investment cycle.
