The most revealing section of Serbia’s revised Fiscal Strategy is not the macroeconomic forecast, the public debt trajectory or the fiscal deficit target. It is Annex 4, a detailed inventory of major state investment projects that provides the clearest picture yet of where the government intends to spend billions of euros over the next three years.
Taken together, the projects listed in the annex represent an infrastructure pipeline worth well over €8 billion, concentrated overwhelmingly in transport corridors, railways, urban redevelopment and facilities linked to EXPO 2027. The list demonstrates that Serbia’s growth model for the second half of the decade remains heavily dependent on state-led capital expenditure rather than private-sector investment.
The annex also reveals something increasingly important for investors. Despite the growing political focus on renewable energy and industrial decarbonisation, Serbia’s largest public investment commitments remain focused on physical connectivity, logistics infrastructure and the transformation of Belgrade into a regional transport and event hub.
At the centre of the investment programme stands EXPO Belgrade 2027, the largest individual project in the entire fiscal strategy. The total estimated value reaches approximately €1.22 billion, making it one of the largest public developments undertaken in modern Serbian history. Spending is expected to peak during 2025 and 2026, with more than €690 million scheduled for those two years alone.
The scale of the project explains why EXPO has become far more than a world exhibition. It now functions as a national development programme encompassing roads, utilities, exhibition facilities, residential developments, public transport links and commercial infrastructure. The government’s projection of 5% GDP growth in 2027 is closely linked to the successful completion of these investments.
Closely connected to EXPO is the controversial National Football Stadium, carrying an estimated cost of approximately €641 million. While critics have questioned the economic return of such a project, the government views it as part of a broader urban transformation strategy for the capital. More than €380 million remains scheduled for spending between 2026 and 2028, ensuring that the project will remain one of Serbia’s largest construction sites throughout the fiscal period.
Yet the real backbone of the investment programme is transport infrastructure.
The Hungarian–Serbian Railway, with a total project value of approximately €1.33 billion, remains one of the country’s most strategically important assets. Once completed, the corridor will strengthen freight flows between the Port of Piraeus and Central Europe, reinforcing Serbia’s ambition to become a logistics hub connecting Southeast Europe with EU markets. The railway forms part of a wider regional transport architecture supported by Chinese financing and construction expertise.
The railway investment is accompanied by an extensive motorway and expressway programme.
The Novi Sad–Ruma Expressway, valued at roughly €908 million, is designed to improve connectivity across Vojvodina and western Serbia while reducing transport bottlenecks around Fruška Gora. Additional major projects include the Preljina–Požega motorway, worth approximately €636 million, and the continuing development of the Morava Corridor, one of the most expensive infrastructure projects in the country’s history.
The Morava Corridor is particularly notable. More than €1.5 billion has already been invested, making it one of Serbia’s largest transport commitments. The project links central Serbia’s industrial and agricultural regions while supporting broader logistics integration across the country.
Railway modernisation extends beyond the Budapest corridor. The Niš–Dimitrovgrad railway reconstruction, with a total value approaching €400 million, strengthens Serbia’s connection with Bulgaria and the Black Sea region. As part of the broader European transport network, the corridor enhances both freight mobility and regional integration.
Meanwhile, the Belgrade Bypass, valued at approximately €382 million, continues to remove freight traffic from the capital’s urban core, improving logistics efficiency and reducing congestion in one of the country’s most economically important areas.
A striking feature of the annex is the relative absence of direct energy-generation investments.
This does not mean energy is receiving less attention. Elsewhere in the fiscal strategy, the government outlines billions of euros of state guarantees supporting projects led by Elektroprivreda Srbije, including a major 1 GW solar and battery storage programme. However, these investments are largely financed through state-owned enterprises, guarantees and dedicated financing structures rather than through direct Republic budget expenditures.
As a result, the annex reveals a two-track investment model.
The state budget finances roads, railways, urban infrastructure and EXPO-related projects. The energy transition is being funded primarily through corporate borrowing, state guarantees and utility-sector investment programmes.
This distinction is important because it affects fiscal risk. Transport projects appear directly on the budget. Energy projects increasingly sit on the balance sheets of state-owned enterprises, supported by government guarantees that may eventually become contingent liabilities for taxpayers if projects underperform.
The investment list also highlights the growing concentration of economic activity around Belgrade.
EXPO facilities, the National Stadium, urban tunnels and associated infrastructure collectively account for several billion euros of investment. While these projects may enhance Serbia’s international profile and support tourism, services and real estate development, they also increase the economic importance of successful project delivery in the capital.
For investors and lenders, Annex 4 provides a practical roadmap of where public money will flow over the next three years.
Construction companies, engineering firms, equipment suppliers, transport operators, logistics providers and financial institutions all stand to benefit from a project pipeline measured in billions rather than millions. At the same time, the concentration of investment raises execution risks. Delays, procurement challenges, cost overruns or financing disruptions would have a direct impact on economic growth forecasts.
The fiscal strategy’s macroeconomic assumptions increasingly depend on the successful completion of these projects.
That reality helps explain why infrastructure remains central to Serbia’s economic policy. The country is attempting to transform itself into a regional transport hub while simultaneously preparing for EXPO 2027 and modernising its public infrastructure. The scale of the effort is unprecedented in recent Serbian fiscal planning.
What Annex 4 ultimately demonstrates is that Serbia’s growth story over the next three years will be written less by consumer spending or private-sector expansion and more by cranes, railways, tunnels, highways and exhibition halls. The government’s economic strategy is effectively a multi-billion-euro wager that infrastructure investment can accelerate productivity, attract capital and support a larger, more competitive economy after EXPO 2027 has concluded.
Whether that wager succeeds will determine not only the legacy of EXPO, but also the trajectory of Serbia’s economy for the remainder of the decade.
