Serbia’s trade in services delivered one of the strongest components of the country’s external accounts in early 2026. The services surplus reached €923 million in January-April, an increase of 17.8% from €783.2 million in the corresponding period of 2025.
The result restored most of the ground lost during the previous two years. Serbia recorded a services surplus of €1.11 billion in the first four months of 2023, followed by €938.5 million in 2024. The latest figure is below the 2023 peak but confirms that the deterioration seen in 2025 was temporary rather than structural.
Information and communications technology remained the principal driver. Serbia has developed a substantial export base in software development, IT services, digital products and outsourced technical work. The sector contributes not only foreign income but also employment, corporate tax revenue and demand for commercial property, telecommunications and professional education.
The more important trend is the widening range of exportable services. Management consulting, research and development, engineering, legal and accounting support and other professional and technical services are becoming more visible in the external balance. These activities carry higher value added than routine outsourcing and deepen Serbia’s integration into international corporate networks.
The services surplus plays a critical role because Serbia continues to run a merchandise deficit. Goods exports reached €14.7 billion in January-May, while imports totalled €17.7 billion, leaving a deficit of €3 billion. The four-month services surplus covered close to one-third of that amount, despite the one-month difference between the reporting periods.
This offset reduces pressure on the current account and foreign-exchange financing. Serbia recorded a current-account deficit of €404.9 million in January-April 2026, a considerable improvement from €1.34 billion a year earlier. Without the services surplus, the external position would have been significantly weaker.
Services exports also require less imported material than manufacturing. A software, engineering or consulting contract can produce high foreign revenue with limited physical inputs, improving the relationship between export earnings and domestic value added. This makes the sector particularly useful during an investment cycle in which machinery, energy and construction imports are increasing.
The composition of growth is not without risk. Digital and professional-service companies depend heavily on human capital. Average net earnings reached RSD 119,504, or approximately €1,018, in January-April, while real wages increased 8.6%. High-productivity services can absorb these costs more easily than traditional sectors, but wage growth can reduce competitiveness when billing rates do not rise at the same pace.
The difference between average and median pay illustrates the concentration of higher earnings. The April median net salary was RSD 94,585, around 21% below the national average. ICT, finance and professional services contribute to that gap by paying salaries substantially above those available in lower-productivity activities.
Labour availability may become a more important constraint than foreign demand. Serbia’s unemployment rate stood at 8.9%, yet companies in technology, engineering and specialist services frequently compete for a narrower pool of qualified employees. Emigration and international remote work allow Serbian professionals to access foreign employers without leaving the country, increasing wage pressure for domestic firms.
Education and training capacity therefore form part of the export infrastructure. Universities, technical faculties, vocational programmes and private training providers determine how quickly Serbia can expand its pool of software developers, engineers, project managers, financial specialists and compliance professionals.
Artificial intelligence may change the competitive position. Routine programming and administrative outsourcing face automation pressure, while demand is rising for specialised engineering, data, cybersecurity, systems integration and industry-specific digital services. Serbia’s next phase of service-export growth depends on moving towards complex, higher-margin work rather than relying on cost arbitrage.
Engineering and environmental services offer a similar opportunity. Infrastructure, renewable energy, industrial decarbonisation, mining, product compliance and CBAM create demand for technical documentation and verification-ready data. Serbian professionals can serve domestic projects and export their expertise across Southeast Europe and the EU.
The stability of the dinar supports foreign clients seeking predictable euro-denominated costs. The currency averaged RSD 117.3938 per euro in the first half, with limited volatility. For service exporters, this reduces pricing uncertainty, although persistent domestic wage growth against a stable euro can compress margins.
Domestic credit growth is another source of demand. Corporate loans expanded 12.1%, while investment lending increased 15.3%. Banks, manufacturers, developers and infrastructure investors require consulting, software, engineering and legal support as they expand. A strong domestic investment cycle can therefore complement foreign service demand.
The international Expo planned for 2027 is expected to provide an additional lift. The National Bank projects that the current-account deficit could decline from around 6% of GDP in 2026 to 4% in 2027, partly because of higher service exports associated with the event. Hospitality, transport, event management, telecommunications, security, consulting and digital services could all benefit.
The commercial value will depend on whether the increase creates lasting capacity. Temporary tourism and event revenue will support the 2027 balance, while durable gains require Serbian companies to convert Expo-related experience into recurring international contracts.
The services surplus has become one of Serbia’s most reliable external stabilisers. ICT remains its largest component, but the broader opportunity lies in professional, technical, engineering and research services. A €923 million four-month surplus gives Serbia more room to import equipment and finance development while maintaining stability in the balance of payments.
