Serbia emerged as one of the fastest-growing economies in Europe in 2024, according to the latest issue of the Macroeconomic Analysis and Trends (MAT) newsletter, published by the Economic Institute in Belgrade and the Serbian Chamber of Commerce. The report estimates that Serbia’s real GDP increased by approximately 3.8% year-on-year during the first 11 months of the year.
A key factor in maintaining the growth trend of total industrial production is the processing sector, along with the expansion of new production capacities. The analysis suggests an even more optimistic short-term outlook, especially with the anticipated launch of a new electric car model at the FCA Serbia factory by the end of this month.
However, the report also highlights a potential threat in the form of sanctions on Serbia’s oil industry, specifically the Oil Industry of Serbia (NIS).
In November, Serbia’s foreign trade exchange value continued to rise for the fifth consecutive month. While exports showed signs of stagnation, imports of goods experienced a noticeable slowdown. Despite subdued demand from the European Union, Serbia found new markets in China and Turkey, which mitigated the decline in exports. Without these alternative markets, the analysis suggests that Serbia would have experienced a 2% decline in merchandise exports, rather than the 1.7% increase observed in the first 11 months. This trade shift helped prevent a reduction of nearly 1 billion euros in export value.
Regarding inflation, it has been on the decline since November, with both monthly and year-on-year inflation rates showing improvement. Since July of the previous year, year-on-year inflation has remained slightly below the National Bank of Serbia’s upper target limit of 4.5%, exhibiting less volatility.
