Serbia’s foreign trade data are the cleanest positive signal in the June 2026 MAT report. In April, goods exports reached €2.999bn, up 8.7% year on year, while imports were almost flat, rising only 0.2%. The monthly goods deficit narrowed by 23% to €772.9mn. For January–April, total goods trade reached €25.897bn, exports rose 8.2% to €11.785bn, imports increased just 0.5% to €14.113bn, and the goods deficit fell 26.1% to €2.328bn. Export coverage of imports improved to 83.5%, compared with 77.6% one year earlier.
That improvement matters because Serbia’s external account has often been treated as a structural vulnerability. The country runs an investment-led and import-intensive model: machinery, equipment, fuel, intermediate goods and consumer imports usually rise when growth strengthens. The first four months of 2026 show a different pattern. Export values are rising faster than imports, energy imports are lower, and manufacturing remains the dominant export engine.
Manufacturing accounted for 87.8% of goods exports and recorded 9.4% cumulative export growth in January–April, with April export growth of around 10%. Mining exports, smaller at 7.3% of total goods exports, rose 36.1%cumulatively, reflecting the continuing importance of Serbia’s metal ore and copper-linked export base. The result is a more balanced external picture than in 2025, even as the domestic industrial base remains uneven.
The geography of trade is also shifting at the margin. EU member states accounted for 59% of Serbia’s total goods exchange in the first four months, up from 57.6% a year earlier. Germany remained Serbia’s largest trading partner with a 13.2% share, while China ranked second with 11.3%, up from 10.8%. Italy’s share increased from 6.0% to 7.8%, while the US share declined from 2.2% to 1.5%.
This trade mix gives Serbia two different exposures. The EU remains the core export and supplier market, meaning Serbia’s trade performance is still linked to eurozone industrial weakness, German demand and European procurement cycles. China is becoming more important as an import source and investment partner, especially in high-tech and industrial equipment. The country is therefore becoming more connected to both European demand and Chinese supply chains, a combination that creates opportunity but also strategic dependency.
MAT’s forecast points to a more challenging second half. Goods exports are projected to rise 7.0% in euro terms over 2026, while imports are projected to increase 8.5%. That implies the early-year improvement in export coverage may narrow as domestic demand, investment imports and energy costs pick up.
The base-case projection is that Serbia keeps a stronger export path than in 2025, supported by automotive, mining, selected manufacturing branches and services. The risk is that import growth re-accelerates faster than exports as energy prices, capital goods and intermediate products rise. The upside case requires automotive exports, copper-linked mining, machinery and higher-value manufacturing to offset renewed energy-import pressure.
Serbia’s trade story in 2026 is therefore constructive, but not settled. The improvement in export coverage is real. The durability of that improvement depends on whether export growth is deepening across sectors or being carried by a small number of high-performing branches while imports are temporarily restrained.
