Serbia’s trade figures improved in early 2026, but the export structure shows a rising concentration risk. MAT reports that export coverage of imports improved to 83.5% in January–April, compared with 77.6% a year earlier. Manufacturing accounted for 87.8% of total goods exports and grew 9.4%. These are positive numbers. The concern is that vehicle exports generated €663.2mn of export growth, equal to 74.6% of the total manufacturing export increase.
This means Serbia’s export improvement is real, but heavily automotive-led. The new production cycle in Kragujevac is strengthening exports and improving the trade balance, especially with EU markets. Yet a trade improvement carried by one sector can become fragile. Automotive exports depend on model cycles, European demand, imported components, supply chains and corporate decisions by global manufacturers.
Serbia needs vehicle exports, but it should not allow them to define the whole export story. A healthy export model would combine automotive with electrical equipment, machinery, food processing, metals, chemicals, rubber and plastics, IT-linked industrial services, and regional consumer products. The wider the export base, the less exposed Serbia becomes to one factory, one buyer group or one model platform.
The domestic value-added question is central. Cars can produce large export values, but the national gain depends on local suppliers, engineering content, wages, services, logistics and domestic components. A car assembled from imported parts helps trade statistics, but the strongest development effect comes when domestic suppliers move deeper into the chain.
The improved import coverage is important for the balance of payments. A higher coverage ratio reduces external pressure and supports confidence. But Serbia should avoid mistaking better export arithmetic for structural transformation. The country still imports large volumes of machinery, energy, components and consumer goods. Stronger exports must be matched by more domestic value creation.
The export story of early 2026 is therefore encouraging but narrow. Cars are lifting the numbers. Serbia’s next challenge is to make sure that the automotive rebound becomes a bridge to a broader export upgrade, not another cycle of dependence on one industrial champion.
