Serbia’s external trade position improved markedly during the first half of 2026 as exports grew more than twice as quickly as imports. Total merchandise trade reached €39.65 billion, an increase of 5.8 per cent from the same period of 2025. Exports rose by 8.3 per cent to €17.97 billion, while imports increased by 3.7 per cent to €21.68 billion.
The resulting trade deficit fell to €3.71 billion, approximately 14.1 per cent below the €4.32 billion recorded a year earlier. Export coverage of imports improved to almost 83 per cent, giving Serbia a more balanced goods account at a time when higher energy prices and stronger domestic consumption might otherwise have been expected to enlarge the deficit.
The most important development lies in the structure of exports. Capital-goods exports increased by 26.1 per cent to €5.17 billion, lifting their share of total merchandise exports from 24.7 per cent to 28.8 per cent. Serbia generated a capital-goods trade surplus of approximately €1.05 billion, compared with €265 million during the first half of 2025.
That change points towards a larger role for machinery, vehicles, electrical equipment and other investment-related products in Serbia’s export portfolio. It reflects the gradual commissioning of foreign-owned manufacturing facilities and the deeper integration of Serbian plants into European supply chains. Capital-goods exports are commercially more valuable than an expansion based principally on raw materials, although their domestic economic contribution ultimately depends on local sourcing, wages, engineering functions and the share of imported components.
Intermediate-goods exports also performed strongly, rising by 9.8 per cent to €7.82 billion. Serbia moved from a relatively small intermediate-goods surplus of €110 million to approximately €347 million. The improvement suggests that metals, chemicals, components and semi-finished industrial goods continued to find external buyers despite weak demand in several major European manufacturing markets.
Energy remained the largest structural weakness. Energy exports declined by 37.4 per cent to €419 million, while imports remained close to €2.44 billion, producing an energy deficit of more than €2.02 billion. Serbia’s dependence on imported crude oil, petroleum products and natural gas therefore continues to absorb a substantial part of the foreign-exchange earnings generated by manufacturing. The weakness of domestic electricity production during June added another layer of vulnerability, particularly during periods of high regional prices.
Consumer-goods trade was less dynamic. Exports of durable consumer products fell by 7.1 per cent, while non-durable consumer-goods exports declined slightly. Imports of durable consumer goods, by contrast, increased by 10.5 per cent. This divergence is consistent with stronger domestic purchasing power but also shows how quickly household demand can feed into the import bill.
The geographical breakdown reveals a highly uneven export economy. Šumadija and Western Serbia increased exports by 30.4 per cent to €4.57 billion, producing a regional trade surplus of €1.14 billion. Capital-goods exports from the region rose by 72.1 per cent, reflecting the importance of automotive and equipment manufacturing around Kragujevac and other industrial centres.
Southern and Eastern Serbia recorded an even larger surplus of €2.31 billion, supported by exports of €4.14 billionagainst imports of €1.83 billion. Intermediate-goods exports from the region rose by 18.7 per cent, consistent with the significance of the mining, metals and processing industries around Bor and other industrial locations.
The performance was weaker in Vojvodina, where exports declined by 1.7 per cent to €5.32 billion and the regional deficit increased to €1.32 billion. Belgrade recorded a deficit of approximately €5.61 billion, reflecting its role as the registered headquarters and importing centre for many national distributors, retailers and energy companies rather than merely the production profile of the capital itself. Regional trade statistics should consequently be read with some caution, as the registered location of an importer or exporter does not always correspond to the physical destination or origin of the goods.
June’s monthly data suggest that the improvement cannot yet be treated as permanent. Exports increased by 9 per cent to €3.21 billion, but imports rose by 17.3 per cent to €3.99 billion. The monthly deficit expanded to €777.5 million, roughly 71 per cent higher than in June 2025.
Manufacturing remained the main export engine. June exports of manufactured goods increased by 10.7 per cent, with motor vehicles and related equipment rising by 52.2 per cent to €514 million. Exports of fabricated metal products increased by 53.2 per cent, while electrical-equipment exports also grew. These figures indicate that the improvement is being led by identifiable industrial branches rather than a broad increase across every category.
The faster growth of June imports may be constructive when it represents machinery, production equipment and materials for new factories. The same increase would be less favourable when driven by consumer products, energy and intermediate inputs that are not subsequently converted into competitive exports. Serbia’s first-half figures show genuine progress, particularly in capital goods and regional manufacturing centres, but they also expose persistent dependence on imported energy and the speed with which stronger domestic demand can reopen the trade gap.
