Serbia’s goods trade expanded during the first half of 2026, with exports growing more than twice as quickly as imports and reducing the country’s external deficit despite a sharp acceleration in import demand during June.
Total merchandise trade reached €39.65bn between January and June, an increase of 5.8 per cent compared with the corresponding period of 2025, according to the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. Exports rose by 8.3 per cent to €17.97bn, while imports increased by a more moderate 3.7 per cent to €21.68bn.
The different growth rates reduced Serbia’s merchandise trade deficit to €3.71bn, down 14.1 per cent year on year. The proportion of imports covered by exports improved from 79.4 per cent to 82.9 per cent, representing one of the more encouraging elements of the first-half economic data.
The figures suggest that export expansion contributed roughly €1.38bn of additional trade revenue compared with the first half of 2025, while the increase in imports was approximately €770mn. The resulting improvement of around €610mn in the trade balance reduces one source of pressure on the current account and limits the volume of external financing required to support domestic consumption, industrial production and capital investment.
The composition of trade, however, remains as important as the headline growth. Intermediate products accounted for 59.5 per cent of exports, equivalent to approximately $12.48bn, demonstrating Serbia’s continued dependence on industrial supply chains in which locally produced components, metals, cables, vehicle parts and processed materials are incorporated into products completed elsewhere.
Consumer goods represented 28 per cent of exports, while equipment accounted for 12.4 per cent. This structure confirms that Serbia’s export economy is predominantly industrial, but also that much of its manufacturing base remains positioned in intermediate stages of European and international value chains rather than in higher-margin finished products.
Imports followed a similar industrial pattern. Intermediate goods represented 55.2 per cent of total imports, or nearly $13.95bn, while consumer goods accounted for 21.1 per cent and equipment for 11 per cent. The high share of intermediate inputs means that part of the import bill is directly connected to export production rather than domestic consumption alone. Serbian manufacturers frequently import machinery, specialised components, chemicals, energy and raw materials before processing or assembling them for re-export.
This relationship limits the extent to which export growth automatically translates into a stronger trade balance. An industrial model dependent on imported energy, production equipment and specialised components can increase both sides of the trade account simultaneously. Serbia’s improving export-to-import coverage therefore carries more significance than the expansion of total trade by itself.
The European Union remained Serbia’s dominant commercial market, accounting for 58.7 per cent of total merchandise trade. On the reported first-half value, this implies trade with EU member states of approximately €23.3bn. Germany and Italy were among Serbia’s largest export destinations and leading sources of imports, while Hungary remained important on both sides of the account.
The EU’s share has edged below the 63.8 per cent recorded for 2025 as a whole, reflecting the expansion of Serbia’s trade with China, Turkey and other non-EU partners as well as exchange-rate and commodity effects. Yet the commercial dependence on Europe remains decisive. Serbia’s leading industrial exporters are closely integrated into EU automotive, electrical-equipment, metals, machinery and consumer-product supply chains, while European-owned companies account for a substantial share of domestic manufacturing capacity and foreign direct investment.
Serbia’s principal export markets during the first six months were Germany, Italy, China, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Hungary. Its largest import partners were China, Germany, Italy, Turkey and Hungary. The list illustrates the dual structure of the country’s trade model: European markets provide the core destination for manufactured exports, while China has become a major supplier of telecommunications equipment, machinery, industrial inputs and consumer products.
China was also the source of Serbia’s largest bilateral trade deficit, driven particularly by imports of telecommunications equipment. Further significant deficits were recorded with Kazakhstan, Turkey and Poland. The deficit with Kazakhstan reflects Serbia’s exposure to imported crude oil and energy commodities, while trade with Turkey combines growing imports of industrial inputs, textiles, machinery and consumer goods.
Serbia achieved notable surpluses with Germany, Slovakia and the United Kingdom, an important signal that selected industrial segments have moved beyond a simple import-dependent assembly model. The surplus with Germany is particularly relevant because Germany remains the central market for Serbia’s automotive components, electrical equipment, machinery and other manufactured exports.
The strongest bilateral surpluses were nevertheless recorded in the immediate region. Serbia maintained substantial positive balances with Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia, supported by exports of food, beverages, pharmaceuticals, fuels, electricity, electrical equipment and vehicles.
Trade with members of the Central European Free Trade Agreement generated exports of €2.37bn and imports of only €782.2mn. Serbia consequently recorded a regional surplus of €1.59bn, with exports covering imports by 303.1 per cent.
CEFTA therefore remains an unusually valuable market for Serbian companies. Although the region is considerably smaller than the EU, Serbia exports a broader range of finished and semi-finished products to neighbouring economies and frequently occupies a stronger commercial position than it does within Western European value chains. Cereals, processed food, beverages, road vehicles, medicines, electrical machinery and equipment were among the main contributors to the regional surplus.
Montenegro imported Serbian pharmaceutical products and non-alcoholic beverages, while Serbia’s main imports from Montenegro included electricity and processed meat products. Trade with Bosnia and Herzegovina was supported by Serbian exports of gas oils and beer, against imports of electricity and iron structures. Electricity appeared on both sides of Serbia’s trade with North Macedonia, alongside Serbian exports of electrical conductors and imports of industrial catalysts.
The inclusion of electricity among both exports and imports reflects Serbia’s increasing integration into the regional power market. Trading positions change according to hydrology, thermal generation availability, renewable output, demand and hourly cross-border prices. This makes electricity trade less comparable with a conventional industrial product: Serbia may export during periods of domestic surplus and import during peak demand, outages or unfavourable hydrological conditions.
Regional data also reveal a pronounced difference between the geography of exports and imports. Vojvodina generated 29.6 per cent of Serbian exports, followed by Šumadija and Western Serbia with 25.4 per cent, Southern and Eastern Serbia with 23 per cent, and the Belgrade region with 21 per cent.
Imports were far more concentrated in Belgrade, which accounted for 43.3 per cent of the national total. Vojvodina represented 30.6 per cent, Šumadija and Western Serbia 15.8 per cent, and Southern and Eastern Serbia 8.4 per cent. Some of this imbalance reflects the registration of importing and distribution companies in the capital rather than the ultimate location where imported goods are consumed. Even so, the export data show that Serbia’s productive base is geographically more dispersed than its commercial and financial headquarters.
June introduced a less favourable short-term signal. Monthly exports reached €3.21bn, rising 9 per cent year on year, but imports surged by 17.3 per cent to €3.99bn. The monthly deficit consequently reached approximately €778mn, equivalent to more than one-fifth of the entire first-half shortfall.
Seasonally adjusted figures also showed imports increasing by 12.7 per cent from May, compared with export growth of 4 per cent. The strength of June imports may partly reflect investment and industrial activity rather than weaker competitiveness. Crude oil was the country’s largest individual import product during the month at $214mn, followed by retail medicines at $181mn, electricity at $82mn, motor-vehicle components at $56mn and natural gas at $47mn.
Energy alone therefore remained a material source of external vulnerability. Imported crude oil, natural gas and electricity directly affect the trade balance, industrial costs and inflation. Serbia’s ability to sustain the first-half improvement will partly depend on domestic power production, energy prices, refinery operations and the availability of alternative gas and oil supply routes during the remainder of the year.
June’s leading export products nevertheless indicate a broader industrial mix. Wiring sets for aircraft, vehicles and ships generated $177mn, followed by copper ore and concentrates at $166mn, passenger vehicles at $163mn, refined copper at $149mn and motor-vehicle parts at $94mn.
Copper ore and refined copper confirm the importance of the mining and metallurgical complex around Bor to Serbia’s external accounts. Vehicle exports and wiring systems point to stronger automotive activity, including the contribution of the production network centred on Kragujevac and the large group of foreign-owned automotive suppliers operating across the country.
The figures also reveal an important distinction in the quality of export growth. Passenger vehicles, electrical systems and automotive components provide a broader industrial multiplier through engineering, logistics and supplier employment. Copper exports deliver substantial foreign-currency revenue but remain more exposed to global commodity prices, ownership structures and the degree of domestic processing. Serbia gains more durable value when mined material is refined or converted into higher-value industrial products before export.
European carbon regulation is becoming another factor in that value equation. With the EU accounting for almost three-fifths of Serbia’s trade, exporters of iron and steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen and electricity are entering a market in which carbon intensity and verifiable emissions data increasingly influence access, pricing and procurement decisions.
CBAM exposure will not necessarily reduce Serbian exports, but it will distinguish companies capable of producing auditable plant-level emissions data from those relying on generic calculations. Serbian producers that connect production volumes, raw-material consumption, fuels, electricity meters and product-allocation methodologies within credible monitoring, reporting and verification systems will be better placed to remain in EU supply chains. Energy sourcing, guarantees of origin and the verifiable carbon content of electricity will become increasingly relevant to commercial negotiations, particularly for metals and other energy-intensive products.
The first-half trade performance shows that Serbia entered the second half of 2026 with a healthier external position than a year earlier. Export growth of 8.3 per cent, an import-coverage ratio of 82.9 per cent and a 14.1 per cent reduction in the deficit represent tangible progress. The acceleration of imports in June, persistent exposure to imported energy and the concentration of the largest bilateral deficit with China leave the structure of that improvement more fragile than the headline numbers suggest.
Serbia’s next stage of export development rests on moving a larger share of its industrial production from intermediate goods into higher-value vehicles, machinery, electrical systems, processed metals and branded products. The country already possesses the manufacturing base, regional market position and European supply-chain connections. The first-half figures show those assets generating stronger export momentum, while the June data underline the continuing cost of energy dependence and import-intensive industrial expansion.
