Serbia’s goods exports expanded considerably faster than imports during the first half of 2026, narrowing the country’s trade deficit and improving the coverage of imports by exports despite still-fragile demand across several European markets.
Total merchandise trade reached €39.65 billion between January and June, an increase of 5.8 per cent compared with the same period of 2025. Expressed in dollars, trade was valued at $46.24 billion, up 13 per cent, with the stronger dollar-denominated increase reflecting exchange-rate movements as well as underlying trade growth.
Exports rose to €17.97 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 8.3 per cent. Imports increased more moderately, by 3.7 per cent, to €21.68 billion. The difference reduced Serbia’s merchandise trade deficit to €3.71 billion, a contraction of 14.1 per cent from the first half of last year.
The corresponding dollar figures show exports of $20.95 billion, up 15.7 per cent, and imports of $25.28 billion, an increase of 10.9 per cent. The dollar-denominated deficit fell by 7.9 per cent to $4.33 billion.
The most important change is visible in Serbia’s import-coverage ratio. Export revenues covered 82.9 per cent of merchandise imports during the first six months of 2026, compared with 79.4 per cent a year earlier. The 3.5 percentage-point improvement points to a more favourable contribution from external trade and reduces the degree to which domestic consumption and investment depend on widening external financing requirements.
Based on the reported growth rates, Serbia exported roughly €16.59 billion of goods and imported approximately €20.91 billion during the first half of 2025. This means exports generated around €1.38 billion of additional revenue in the first six months of 2026, while the increase in the import bill was limited to about €770 million. The resulting trade deficit declined by more than €600 million year on year.
That shift matters for Serbia’s broader macroeconomic position. The country continues to import significant quantities of energy, industrial equipment, transport machinery, intermediate materials and consumer goods. A period in which exports grow more than twice as quickly as imports therefore offers some protection for the current account, foreign-exchange reserves and the stability of the dinar.
The improvement also suggests that Serbia’s industrial export platform remains resilient despite subdued manufacturing conditions in parts of the eurozone. Foreign-owned plants producing electrical equipment, vehicle components, tyres, machinery and metal products have become central to the country’s export structure, alongside mining, agriculture, food processing and pharmaceutical production.
The result should nevertheless be interpreted carefully. Nominal export growth can reflect higher commodity prices, changes in the product mix and output from a limited number of large industrial facilities. Serbia’s trade performance remains concentrated among several major exporters, meaning operational interruptions, commodity-price corrections or weaker European orders can affect national data disproportionately.
The European Union accounted for 58.7 per cent of Serbia’s total merchandise trade, confirming that the bloc remains the country’s dominant commercial market despite expanding relations with China, Türkiye, the Middle East and other non-EU economies. On the basis of the total trade figure, EU-linked merchandise flows were worth approximately €23.3 billion in the first half of the year.
This concentration binds Serbia’s industrial outlook closely to European production cycles, regulatory requirements and investment decisions. It also makes compliance with EU product standards, supply-chain due diligence and carbon reporting increasingly relevant to the competitiveness of Serbian exporters. From 2026, the definitive phase of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is adding a new cost and documentation layer for producers of iron and steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, hydrogen and electricity.
The impact extends beyond companies directly covered by the initial CBAM list. Serbian suppliers serving European automotive, engineering, construction and industrial groups are increasingly being asked to provide plant-level information on electricity consumption, embedded emissions, material origin and production processes. Export growth that is not supported by reliable measurement, reporting and verification systems may become harder to sustain as European buyers tighten procurement requirements.
Regional trade continues to provide an important counterweight to Serbia’s structural deficit with several large international partners. Trade with the Central European Free Trade Agreement countries generated a surplus of €1.59 billion during the first half of 2026. Serbian exports to CEFTA economies reached €2.37 billion, while imports were only €782.2 million.
Exports consequently covered 303.1 per cent of imports from the CEFTA region. In dollar terms, Serbia exported $2.76 billion to CEFTA members and imported $912.1 million, producing a surplus of $1.85 billion.
The regional surplus was supported primarily by exports of cereals and cereal products, beverages, road vehicles, medical and pharmaceutical products, and electrical machinery and equipment. These flows demonstrate Serbia’s role as a manufacturing and distribution centre for the Western Balkans, where geographic proximity, established logistics networks and tariff-free access give domestic producers an advantage over more distant suppliers.
CEFTA trade is particularly valuable because it offsets part of Serbia’s deficit generated through imports of machinery, technology, energy and industrial inputs from larger economies. A surplus of almost €1.6 billion with the region represents more than 42 per cent of Serbia’s total goods deficit, illustrating the importance of neighbouring markets to the country’s external balance.
The first-half numbers therefore present a stronger trade picture than the headline deficit alone suggests. Serbia continues to buy more goods abroad than it sells, but the gap is narrowing because export growth is outpacing import expansion. The composition and durability of that improvement will be decisive during the second half of the year.
Further gains will depend on European industrial demand, agricultural output, commodity prices, energy-import requirements and the ramp-up of export-oriented manufacturing investments. The increasingly demanding EU compliance environment will also determine which Serbian companies can preserve margins and maintain access to corporate supply chains.
For exporters, the immediate commercial priority is no longer limited to expanding production capacity. Maintaining the first-half momentum will require verified emissions data, traceable inputs, compliant electricity documentation and operating systems capable of meeting European buyer requirements. Serbia’s improved trade balance has created a more favourable starting point, but the quality and regulatory readiness of its export base will shape whether the narrowing of the deficit becomes structural rather than temporary.
