Serbia’s exports are emerging as one of the strongest parts of the economy in 2026, growing almost twice as quickly as imports and reducing the country’s merchandise trade deficit even as demand remains weak across several major European markets.
Goods exports reached €21.09 billion in January-July, up 8.8% year on year, while imports increased only 4.4% to €25.50 billion.
That reduced the merchandise trade deficit by 12.6% to €4.41 billion and lifted export coverage of imports to 82.7%, from 79.4% a year earlier. EU countries accounted for 58.6% of overall merchandise trade.
The numbers are significant because Serbia has historically combined strong foreign investment with a persistent trade deficit generated partly by imported equipment, intermediate goods and consumer products.
The 2026 pattern is different.
New industrial capacity created in previous investment cycles is increasingly producing exports, while several large manufacturing operations are entering higher-output phases.
Automotive manufacturing has been particularly important, supported by new production in Kragujevac and expanding supplier operations. Mining and copper exports have provided another major contribution.
The National Bank of Serbia said manufacturing, automotive-related industries and copper ore were among the main drivers of export growth during the first half of the year. Total exports of goods and services grew faster than imports, helping reduce the current-account deficit.
The trade figures also show another advantage: Serbia retains a large surplus with neighbouring CEFTA economies.
Exports to CEFTA markets reached approximately €2.82 billion in January-July, compared with imports of about €909 million, producing a surplus of roughly €1.91 billion.
That gives Serbian producers two distinct markets.
The EU remains the principal destination for industrial products and the main driver of investment standards, while the Western Balkans provide an important regional market where Serbian companies maintain strong distribution networks.
The risk is concentration.
Automotive production, copper and a relatively limited group of large foreign-owned manufacturers account for an important share of export growth. A slowdown at one major plant or renewed weakness in Germany, Italy and other European industrial markets could therefore quickly affect the headline numbers.
Domestic value added is another issue.
Exporting €1 of manufactured goods does not mean €1 remains in Serbia. Imported components, machinery, technology licences and intermediate inputs reduce the amount retained locally.
The next stage of Serbia’s export strategy therefore depends on localising supplier chains.
Tooling, castings, electronics, plastics, engineering, maintenance, software, testing, logistics and industrial services offer more economic value than simply adding another assembly operation.
Serbia’s export figures are consequently beginning to show the effects of the investment cycle of the previous decade.
The bigger opportunity for 2027 is turning those factories into wider industrial ecosystems.
