Serbia entered the second quarter of 2026 with a markedly stronger external trade position, as rising exports from the automotive industry, mining sector and industrial manufacturing helped narrow the country’s merchandise trade deficit despite continued weakness in energy exports. The latest foreign trade data for April and the first four months of the year point to a structural shift in Serbia’s export profile, with higher-value industrial goods increasingly replacing energy and commodity-driven growth.
Between January and April 2026, Serbian exports reached €11.78 billion, representing growth of 8.2% compared with the same period of 2025. Imports rose only 0.5% to €14.11 billion, allowing the trade deficit to narrow significantly from €3.15 billion to €2.33 billion. The improvement is one of the strongest external sector developments recorded since the post-pandemic recovery period and suggests that industrial competitiveness has strengthened despite continuing economic uncertainty across Europe.
April alone delivered particularly encouraging results. Exports increased by 8.7% year-on-year to €2.999 billion, while imports were almost unchanged at €3.772 billion. Consequently, the monthly trade deficit fell from more than €1 billion in April 2025 to approximately €773 million in April 2026.
The most significant driver behind the improvement has been the rapid expansion of Serbia’s capital goods exports. During the first four months of the year, exports of capital equipment reached €3.34 billion, a remarkable 28.2% increase compared with the previous year. Capital goods now account for more than 28% of total exports, highlighting Serbia’s growing integration into European manufacturing supply chains and the increasing importance of machinery, industrial equipment and automotive production.
No sector illustrates this transformation more clearly than automotive manufacturing. Exports of motor vehicles and trailers surged to €1.83 billion, representing growth of 56.8% year-on-year. The sector generated a trade surplus of approximately €940 million, making it one of the most important contributors to Serbia’s external trade performance. The sharp increase reflects higher production volumes and export activity from automotive manufacturing facilities and supplier networks serving European markets.
The broader machinery and transport equipment category became Serbia’s largest export segment, reaching €3.85 billion during January–April and accounting for 32.7% of total exports. Within that category, road vehicle exports alone expanded by more than 131%, while exports of electrical machinery exceeded €1.23 billion. Industrial machinery exports also recorded double-digit growth, reinforcing the trend toward more technologically sophisticated export structures.
Mining emerged as another major growth engine. Total mining exports increased by 36.1% to €857 million, supported primarily by metal ore production. Exports of metal ores rose by 34.9% to approximately €831 million, while imports of metal ores declined significantly. The result was a dramatic improvement in the mining trade balance, with the sector’s deficit shrinking from nearly €683 million to just €156 million.
The figures underline the continuing importance of Serbia’s copper and precious metals industry. Operations around Bor and Majdanpek remain among the country’s most strategically significant export contributors, benefiting from relatively strong international metals prices and sustained demand from European industrial consumers. The mining sector’s performance also highlights Serbia’s growing relevance within European discussions surrounding critical raw materials and industrial supply-chain security.
Manufacturing remains the backbone of the Serbian economy, generating €10.35 billion of exports during the first four months of 2026 and accounting for nearly 88% of total exports. Beyond automotive production, several manufacturing sectors delivered solid growth. Exports of rubber and plastic products exceeded €1.0 billion, basic metals reached €1.05 billion, electrical equipment approached €1 billion, while chemical products generated more than €618 million in exports.
The performance of intermediate goods also reflects the resilience of Serbian industry. Exports in this category increased by 10.2% to €5.16 billion, generating a trade surplus of more than €318 million. Intermediate goods remain a crucial component of European manufacturing supply chains, particularly in sectors such as automotive components, electrical equipment, metal processing and industrial materials.
Geographically, export growth is becoming increasingly diversified. The strongest expansion came from Šumadija and Western Serbia, where exports rose 30.2% to €2.94 billion. The region generated a trade surplus of almost €798 million, reflecting the strength of automotive production, machinery manufacturing and export-oriented industrial facilities.
Southern and Eastern Serbia continued to strengthen its role as a major export center. Regional exports reached €2.78 billion, while the trade surplus climbed to more than €1.57 billion. Strong mining activity, metal processing and industrial manufacturing continue to underpin the region’s export performance and increasingly position it as one of Serbia’s most important industrial corridors.
By contrast, the Belgrade region remained the country’s largest import hub. While exports were broadly stable at €2.43 billion, imports exceeded €6.19 billion, generating a regional trade deficit of approximately €3.77 billion. This reflects Belgrade’s role as Serbia’s principal commercial, distribution and consumption center rather than a major industrial export platform.
The most notable weakness remains energy. Serbia’s energy exports fell sharply during the first four months of the year, declining by more than 40% to approximately €290 million. Although energy imports also declined, they remained above €1.61 billion, resulting in a sectoral trade deficit exceeding €1.32 billion. Electricity exports were particularly weak, falling by almost half compared with the previous year.
Energy therefore continues to represent the largest structural vulnerability in Serbia’s trade profile. While industrial sectors increasingly generate surpluses, the country remains dependent on imported energy products, petroleum derivatives and natural gas. Future investments in renewable energy, grid infrastructure and domestic generation capacity will likely play a critical role in reducing this deficit over the coming decade.
The broader picture emerging from the first four months of 2026 is one of gradual but meaningful transformation. Serbia’s export growth is increasingly concentrated in sectors associated with industrial upgrading, including automotive manufacturing, machinery production, electrical equipment, metal processing and mining. These industries generally produce higher value-added exports and offer greater resilience against commodity price volatility than traditional export sectors.
For investors, lenders and industrial stakeholders, the data suggest that Serbia’s export economy is becoming more deeply embedded within European industrial value chains. Automotive exports, machinery production and mining activity are increasingly shaping national trade performance, while regional industrial centers outside Belgrade continue to expand their contribution to export growth. The narrowing trade deficit, rising industrial exports and strengthening mining sector together indicate that Serbia entered 2026 with a considerably stronger external trade position than many observers anticipated at the beginning of the year.
