Serbia’s merchandise trade expanded substantially in 2025, with exports growing faster than imports and slightly improving the economy’s external coverage ratio. The figures point to a more competitive export base, but also underline the country’s continued dependence on imported equipment, energy, industrial inputs and consumer goods.
Total trade in goods reached €74.93bn, an increase of 7.7 per cent from 2024. Exports rose 8.4 per cent to €33.07bn, while imports increased 7.2 per cent to €41.86bn, according to the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. The trade deficit consequently widened by a relatively modest 2.9 per cent, reaching €8.79bn. Serbia’s export-to-import coverage ratio improved from 78.2 per cent to 79.0 per cent. Official trade data
Expressed in US dollars, the increase appears considerably stronger because of exchange-rate movements during the year. Total trade was valued at $84.54bn, up 12.3 per cent, comprising exports of $37.31bn and imports of $47.23bn. The dollar-denominated deficit reached $9.91bn, compared with $9.23bn in 2024.
The difference between the euro and dollar growth rates is important. Serbia conducts much of its trade with European markets and maintains a tightly managed dinar-euro exchange rate, making the euro figures a more relevant measure of the underlying commercial expansion. The 7.7 per cent increase in euro terms still significantly exceeded Serbia’s estimated real GDP growth of about 2 per cent in 2025, although nominal trade growth cannot be interpreted as an equivalent increase in physical export volumes.
The composition of exports suggests that Serbia’s position in European industrial supply chains is becoming broader, but remains concentrated in several capital-intensive sectors. Electrical machinery represented the largest export group, with sales of approximately €3.6bn, followed by road vehicles at around €2.3bn and metal ores and residues at approximately €2.1bn. Insulated wiring systems, refined copper, copper concentrates, tyres, electric motors, vehicle components and agricultural products remained among the most important individual export categories.
This structure reflects the interaction between foreign-owned manufacturing plants and Serbia’s mineral and agricultural resources. Automotive and electrical-equipment producers supply factories across Germany, Italy, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, while copper output from eastern Serbia has become increasingly visible in the country’s trade accounts. The expansion of mining and metallurgical production around Bor and Majdanpek, led by Serbia Zijin Copper and Zijin Mining, has materially increased the value of copper concentrate, refined copper and related products moving through Serbia’s export system.
The automotive sector remains another central component. Production by Stellantis in Kragujevac, alongside the network of component manufacturers serving European vehicle producers, gives Serbia access to higher-value industrial supply chains. Cable systems, tyres, electronic components, motors and vehicle parts produced by companies operating across Kragujevac, Novi Sad, Subotica, Niš, Zrenjanin and other industrial centres provide a relatively diversified manufacturing platform, even where individual factories remain highly dependent on decisions taken by foreign parent companies.
The concentration of exports in electrical machinery, vehicles and metals creates both scale and vulnerability. Demand for these products is closely connected to industrial conditions in the European Union, particularly Germany and Italy. Weak European manufacturing can quickly affect Serbian factory utilisation, supplier orders and employment. Copper exports are exposed to commodity prices and production cycles, while automotive exports depend on model allocation, supply-chain restructuring and the speed of Europe’s transition towards electric vehicles.
The country’s import profile mirrors its industrial development. Electrical machinery imports were valued at approximately €2.8bn, road vehicles at around €2.1bn, and petroleum and petroleum products at about €2bn. Machinery, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, natural gas, vehicle components and industrial raw materials also accounted for substantial shares.
Part of the deficit therefore reflects investment and production rather than final consumption alone. Imported equipment, automation systems, electrical components and construction machinery support industrial capacity and infrastructure development. Imported intermediate goods are frequently processed in Serbia and subsequently re-exported. The quality of the trade deficit depends not only on its size, but on whether imported capital and intermediate goods generate sufficient future exports, productivity gains and domestic value added.
Energy remains a more difficult component. Serbia continues to depend on imports of crude oil, petroleum products and natural gas, while electricity trade varies with hydrology, coal availability, power-plant outages and regional market prices. Energy imports can widen the deficit rapidly during periods of high international prices or weak domestic electricity production. They also transmit external inflation into industrial costs and household expenditure.
The European Union remained Serbia’s dominant commercial market, accounting for 58.3 per cent of total merchandise trade. Germany was the largest export destination, purchasing goods worth approximately €5.1bn, followed by Italy at about €2.2bn and Bosnia and Herzegovina at around €2.1bn. China and Hungary were also among the five largest export markets.
On the import side, China overtook all other suppliers with deliveries valued at approximately €6.4bn. Germany followed with around €4.9bn, while imports from Italy reached approximately €2.8bn. Turkey and Hungary completed the group of Serbia’s five largest import partners.
The widening imbalance with China is becoming one of the most consequential structural features of Serbian trade. Chinese companies have become major industrial investors in Serbia, particularly in mining, metals, infrastructure and automotive manufacturing, but Serbia also imports large quantities of telecommunications equipment, machinery, electronics, industrial components and consumer goods from China. Serbian exports to China have grown, largely through copper and mining products, yet remain substantially below the value of Chinese imports.
That pattern creates a mixed economic exposure. Chinese investment can expand production capacity, employment and exports, but high import dependence can limit the domestic value retained from new projects. The balance depends on local procurement, supplier development, technology transfer, energy sourcing and whether Serbian factories move beyond basic processing into more sophisticated products.
Regional trade offers a markedly different picture. The CEFTA economies remained Serbia’s second most important trading bloc and generated a large Serbian surplus. Exports to CEFTA members reached €4.88bn, while imports amounted to €1.92bn, producing a surplus of almost €2.96bn. Exports covered 253.9 per cent of imports.
The CEFTA surplus was supported by cereals and processed food, beverages, road vehicles, petroleum products, pharmaceuticals and electrical equipment. Serbia’s geographical position, production scale and distribution networks give its companies a strong commercial advantage across Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia and other neighbouring markets.
Regional demand provides a useful counterweight to Serbia’s deficits with China, Turkey and several EU economies. It is also strategically important because Serbian companies tend to hold stronger brands, distribution networks and market knowledge in neighbouring countries than in western Europe. The challenge is that the aggregate size of the Western Balkan market remains limited, meaning CEFTA cannot replace the EU as Serbia’s main source of industrial demand and investment.
Trade activity is geographically dispersed, although the regional figures partly reflect the registered headquarters of importers and exporters rather than the physical location of production. Vojvodina accounted for 32.0 per cent of exports, followed by Šumadija and Western Serbia with 22.5 per cent, Belgrade with 22.2 per cent, and Southern and Eastern Serbia with 21.9 per cent.
Imports were considerably more concentrated. The Belgrade region accounted for 45.6 per cent, followed by Vojvodina with 29.5 per cent, Šumadija and Western Serbia with 14.2 per cent, and Southern and Eastern Serbia with 8.8 per cent. The high Belgrade share reflects the concentration of trading companies, distributors and corporate headquarters and should not be interpreted as the capital consuming almost half of all imported goods.
December provided a strong end to the year. Serbia exported goods worth €2.69bn, an increase of 11.3 per cent from December 2024, while imports reached €3.72bn, up 5.6 per cent. The stronger export growth improved the monthly balance, although December still produced a goods deficit of slightly more than €1bn.
The improvement continued into 2026. During the first five months, merchandise exports rose 7.7 per cent to €14.70bn, while imports increased only 1.0 per cent to €17.68bn. The deficit contracted by 22.9 per cent to €2.98bn, and export coverage climbed from 77.9 per cent to 83.1 per cent.
Those early figures indicate that the faster export growth recorded in 2025 was not merely a year-end statistical effect. They also suggest that Serbia entered 2026 with a more favourable merchandise-trade trajectory, even as domestic economic growth remained moderate and European industrial demand uncertain.
The larger test lies in the value retained inside Serbia. Export growth based on imported machinery, components, energy and foreign-controlled production can increase turnover without producing a comparable improvement in domestic productivity or corporate margins. Stronger local supply chains, deeper processing of copper and agricultural commodities, more domestic engineering content and a larger share of technologically sophisticated exports would make the trade expansion more durable.
New EU carbon, product-traceability and supply-chain requirements add another layer. Serbian exporters of iron, steel, aluminium, cement, fertilisers, electricity and selected downstream products increasingly need plant-level emissions data and verifiable information on the origin of materials and electricity. Compliance under the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism will affect not only administrative costs but also pricing, contract negotiations and access to European customers.
Serbia’s €74.93bn merchandise-trade performance shows an economy becoming more deeply integrated into European and regional supply chains. Export growth exceeding import growth, the improvement in coverage and the strong CEFTA surplus provide a more favourable base. The persistent €8.79bn deficit, high dependence on imported energy and equipment, and concentration of key exports in foreign-owned manufacturing and copper remain the defining constraints behind the headline expansion.
