Serbia’s external debt climbed above €52 billion in the first quarter of 2026, extending a multi-year rise in foreign liabilities while a predominantly long-term maturity structure and record central-bank reserves limit near-term refinancing risk.
Total external debt stood at about €52.03 billion at the end of March, compared with roughly €51.18 billion at the end of 2025.
The increase was about €860 million in three months.
More important than the headline amount is its structure.
About €50.57 billion consisted of medium- and long-term obligations, while short-term external debt was roughly €1.46 billion.
That substantially reduces rollover risk.
A country becomes most vulnerable when large amounts of foreign debt need to be refinanced within months and investors simultaneously become less willing to provide capital.
Serbia’s external liabilities do not currently have that profile.
The increase also needs to be considered alongside the country’s foreign-exchange reserves, which subsequently rose above €30.5 billion by July.
This creates a considerably stronger liquidity position than the gross debt number alone might suggest.
But the longer-term trajectory deserves attention.
External debt has risen from roughly €30.6 billion in 2020 and €36.3 billion in 2021 to more than €50 billion.
Some of that increase reflects investment, infrastructure and corporate expansion rather than financial distress.
Debt can improve an economy’s future capacity if it finances productive assets.
The issue is therefore not whether Serbia should borrow abroad.
It is whether the return generated by new infrastructure, industrial projects and corporate investment exceeds the cost of servicing the liabilities.
That question becomes more important as the stock grows.
Serbia currently has two buffers: relatively rapid nominal GDP growth and substantial foreign-exchange reserves.
Those protect against immediate stress.
Neither substitutes indefinitely for productivity, exports and investment returns.
