Serbia’s public finances improved sharply during the second quarter, culminating in a RSD 49.1 billion general-government surplus in June, but the recovery was not enough to erase the effect of a much weaker start to the year.
The general government recorded deficits of RSD 42.3 billion in January, RSD 21.7 billion in February and nearly RSD 49 billion in March.
The position subsequently improved to a RSD 7.5 billion surplus in April, a small positive balance in May and the much larger June surplus.
Taken together, the first six months produced a deficit of roughly RSD 55.8 billion.
That compares with a deficit of approximately RSD 21.3 billion in the same period of 2025, based on the NBS monthly series.
The distinction is important.
June in isolation points to strong revenue performance and expenditure control. The first half as a whole presents a more cautious picture.
Fiscal policy is particularly important for Serbia because the government is simultaneously financing major infrastructure programmes and attempting to preserve a declining public-debt ratio.
The country’s ability to run moderate deficits while nominal GDP expands has helped reduce debt relative to output over recent years.
According to the Maastricht-based measure in the bulletin, consolidated general-government debt amounted to about RSD 4.56 trillion at the end of the first quarter of 2026, while the reported debt ratio continued a declining longer-term trajectory from levels above 50% several years earlier.
That gives Serbia more fiscal space than during previous periods of stress.
But the quality of spending matters as much as the headline deficit.
Infrastructure capable of raising productivity can justify temporary borrowing. Recurrent expenditure that merely lifts consumption creates a different debt dynamic.
The improving second-quarter fiscal trend is therefore encouraging.
It does not yet establish that 2026 will be a stronger fiscal year than 2025.
The more meaningful test will come later in the year, when capital expenditure, wage commitments and other year-end spending traditionally become more important.
