Serbia’s foreign-exchange reserves remained close to a historical high at the end of the first half of 2026, providing the National Bank of Serbia with a substantial buffer against external-market volatility, public-sector foreign-currency payments and pressure on the dinar.
Gross NBS foreign-exchange reserves stood at €29.61bn at the end of June, decreasing by €273.2m from May. The monthly fall did not reflect a shortage of foreign-currency inflows. It was driven primarily by a negative valuation effect on Serbia’s expanding gold portfolio.
The reserve position covered 164.3% of the M1 money supply and the equivalent of 6.8 months of imports of goods and services. Import coverage was more than twice the conventional three-month reserve-adequacy threshold, leaving Serbia with a strong liquidity defence against external shocks.
Net reserves, which exclude banks’ foreign-currency required reserves, IMF-related liabilities and certain other obligations, amounted to €25.06bn. They declined €362.8m during June.
The difference between gross and net reserves reached approximately €4.55bn, reflecting foreign-currency liabilities and funds that are included in the headline reserve total but are not fully available as the NBS’s own net buffer. Even after this adjustment, net reserves remained sufficiently large to support exchange-rate stability and sovereign foreign-currency liquidity.
The central bank generated several important reserve inflows during June. NBS intervention on the domestic foreign-exchange market produced a reported net reserve inflow of €270m, although €135m of purchases agreed at the end of June were settled in July and will therefore affect July’s reserve position.
Banks’ foreign-currency required reserves generated a further net inflow of €255.1m, while reserve management, donations and other transactions contributed €88.4m.
These inflows were sufficient to cover €411.8m of government foreign-currency obligations. Serbia was therefore able to service external and foreign-currency debt without materially weakening the underlying transactional reserve position.
The decisive negative factor was the €474.9m valuation loss caused by international-market movements. The US-dollar gold price fell approximately 11.4% during June, reducing the euro value of Serbia’s gold holdings. A 2.2% appreciation of the dollar against the euro partly offset that effect because dollar-denominated assets became more valuable in euro terms.
The distinction between transaction-related reserve movements and valuation effects is important. A fall in reserves caused by debt service or sustained currency intervention can indicate pressure on the external position. A valuation decline reflects a change in the market price of assets already held and does not carry the same liquidity implication.
Serbia’s physical gold reserves reached a record 54,565.2 kilograms, equivalent to approximately 54.6 tonnes. Their value at the end of June was €6.20bn, representing 20.9% of total gross foreign-exchange reserves.
Gold has consequently become one of the most important components of Serbia’s reserve portfolio. The share is large enough that movements in the international gold price can now materially affect the monthly headline reserve figure.
During June, the NBS purchased an additional 250.9 kilograms of gold through 20 gold bars acquired on the domestic market from Serbia Zijin Copper. The transaction connects Serbia’s reserve strategy directly with domestic gold production from the Bor mining and processing complex.
The physical quantity of gold increased, but its market value fell by €617.7m during June due to the global price correction and exchange-rate movements. This explains why the reserve total declined despite net foreign-currency purchases, required-reserve inflows and additional physical gold acquisitions.
Since the beginning of 2026, the NBS has purchased approximately 2.1 tonnes of gold. The value of the gold portfolio was nevertheless only €4.8m higher than at the end of 2025 because the dollar price of gold fell approximately 6.5% during the first half, partly offset by a roughly 3% strengthening of the dollar against the euro.
Serbia’s growing gold allocation provides diversification from government bonds, bank deposits and other foreign-currency instruments. Gold carries no direct sovereign default exposure and can offer protection during periods of geopolitical or financial stress. It also introduces greater mark-to-market volatility because it does not produce interest income and its price can move sharply over short periods.
At 20.9% of gross reserves, gold is no longer a peripheral allocation. Its performance can dominate monthly changes in the reserve total, as occurred in June. Reserve adequacy should therefore be assessed through both the nominal euro value and the composition and liquidity of the portfolio.
Foreign-exchange-market activity increased markedly. Interbank trading reached €1.93bn in June, bringing cumulative turnover for the first six months to €5.10bn. June alone accounted for almost 38% of first-half turnover, indicating a considerable rise in market activity.
Despite that increase, the dinar was almost unchanged against the euro during June. Over the first six months, it depreciated by only 0.1% in nominal terms.
The stability was supported by active NBS intervention. The central bank purchased a net €405m in June, absorbing excess foreign-currency liquidity and preventing stronger appreciation of the dinar.
The June purchase represented a reversal of the pattern observed earlier in the year. Across the full first half, the NBS remained a net seller of €755m. This implies net sales of approximately €1.16bn during January-May, followed by the €405m net purchase in June.
The first-half intervention balance indicates that the central bank initially supplied foreign currency to maintain relative dinar stability before market conditions turned in June. The reversal may reflect stronger seasonal inflows, export receipts, tourism-related foreign currency, corporate transactions or changes in investor positioning.
For importers and companies with euro-indexed liabilities, exchange-rate stability continues to limit currency risk. It also supports the quality of bank assets because close to 60% of Serbian non-financial-sector credit remains denominated in or indexed to foreign currencies.
Exporters receive less support from currency depreciation, meaning that competitiveness must come primarily from productivity, labour costs, energy efficiency and product quality. The NBS’s managed-stability approach prioritises inflation control and financial-system stability over using the exchange rate as a tool to stimulate exports.
The reserve position is also relevant to Serbia’s sovereign credit profile. Gross reserves of €29.61bn, net reserves above €25bn and import coverage of 6.8 months reduce refinancing and balance-of-payments risk. They give the state greater capacity to service foreign-currency obligations during periods of weaker capital inflows or more expensive international borrowing.
The weaker foreign direct investment inflows recorded during the first four months of 2026 make this buffer particularly valuable. Serbia’s current-account deficit has narrowed, reducing the immediate need for external financing, but a prolonged slowdown in investment inflows would increase the importance of exports, services, remittances and portfolio financing.
June’s reserve decline does not indicate a deterioration in Serbia’s external liquidity. Transactional inflows covered government foreign-currency payments, the NBS returned to net foreign-currency purchases, and the dinar remained virtually stable. The fall was primarily the accounting consequence of a sharp correction in the price of gold.
The more important development is the changing composition of the reserve portfolio. Serbia now holds a record 54.6 tonnes of gold, and the asset represents more than one-fifth of gross reserves. That allocation strengthens diversification and links the reserve strategy with domestic mining output, but it also makes monthly reserve values more sensitive to global gold prices.
With gross reserves close to €30bn, a stable dinar and import coverage well above conventional adequacy levels, the NBS entered the second half of 2026 with substantial monetary and external-policy capacity.
