Professor Goran Radosavljević from FEFA stated that Serbia’s planned GDP growth of 3.5% for 2025 is unlikely unless the second half of the year sees a strong economic rebound, with growth reaching around 4%. The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) recently revised its GDP forecast to 2.75%, while other international institutions maintain projections around 3%.
Key points:
Sectoral challenges: Construction is declining sharply (16.1% drop in Q3), while trade, financial services, and tourism have also stagnated or fallen. Agriculture shows some improvement, but overall sectoral instability weighs on GDP.
Industrial growth: Industry grew 5.5% in July, providing a positive signal, as it has averaged 3% growth since the start of the year.
Inflation effects: High inflation (around 5%) may inflate nominal GDP figures, but real growth is closer to 2.5%. Measures like limiting trade margins and fixing wholesale prices have uncertain impacts and may have mixed effects on GDP.
Economic measures: Radosavljević criticized ad hoc interventions, such as price freezes and margin caps, noting they often fail to improve citizens’ standards. Energy and food costs remain high, with the average consumer spending about 70% of income on essentials.
Agriculture and subsidies: Despite claims of a poor agricultural year, results suggest moderate performance. Inefficient subsidy policies contribute to rising food prices.
Standard of living: Average income in Serbia is below 50% of the EU average, meaning nominal gains may not translate to improved real living standards.
Radosavljević concluded that ongoing sectoral weaknesses, inflation, delayed projects, and potential political instability pose risks that could keep GDP growth below 2.5–3% for the year.
