Serbia’s economy maintained positive momentum at the beginning of 2026. Real GDP expanded by 3.2% year-on-year in the first quarter, while activity indicators for April and May suggested that growth continued into the second quarter. Industrial production rose by 2.1%, real retail turnover increased by 5.9%, and tourist arrivals were 7.9% higher than a year earlier.
The expansion was not evenly distributed. Manufacturing and mining supported industrial growth, but energy production remained a significant weak point. In April and May, manufacturing output increased by 3.6% and mining by 4%, while energy-sector output fell by 8.1%. Construction indicators were more encouraging: production of construction materials rose by 2.8%, and the number of building permits issued in April increased by 4.3%.
Agriculture may also provide a larger contribution than initially expected. First-quarter agricultural production was reported to be 7% higher year-on-year, while early estimates indicated greater production of wheat and several fruit categories. The final result will still depend heavily on rainfall, temperatures and conditions during the remainder of the growing season.
The NBS projects real GDP growth of 3% for 2026, accelerating to 4.5% in 2027. Household consumption is expected to benefit from rising disposable income, while fixed investment will be supported by infrastructure projects associated with the “Leap into the Future—Serbia Expo 2027” program. Fixed investment is projected to grow by 4% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027.
The composition of growth will change between the two years. In 2026, stronger consumption and investment are expected to increase imports, while weak external demand restrains exports. Net trade will consequently subtract from economic growth. In 2027, Expo-related tourism and service exports are expected to reverse that effect and make net exports a positive contributor.
This outlook places considerable importance on project implementation. Infrastructure investment can raise short-term GDP through construction and equipment purchases, but its lasting contribution depends on whether projects improve transport, urban capacity, tourism infrastructure and private-sector productivity. Delays, cost overruns or high import dependence would reduce the domestic benefit.
The 2027 forecast should therefore be viewed as more than an event-driven growth projection. It is a test of Serbia’s capacity to translate a major public-investment cycle into durable productive assets. Strong visitor numbers during Expo would support the economy temporarily; better infrastructure, business linkages and urban services would determine whether the gains continue after the event ends.
