Information technology, fintech and business services remain among Serbia’s best growth sectors, but faster cost growth shows the industry is no longer immune to margin pressure.
Serbia’s technology and business-services sector continues to grow faster than much of the economy. But it is entering a more demanding phase.
In the first quarter of 2026, operating income in Serbia’s non-financial business economy rose 6.4 per cent from a year earlier. In the information and communication sector, operating income rose 11.4 per cent. That would normally be a straightforward growth story. The complication is that ICT operating costs rose 12.5 per cent, slightly faster than income.
The message is not that Serbian tech is weakening. It is that the sector is maturing. Growth remains strong, but labour costs, senior talent shortages, subcontractor rates, office costs and international competition are beginning to matter more.
The second-half forecast is still positive. Serbia’s ICT, fintech and business-services firms should deliver around 10 to 12 per cent operating-income growth in H2 2026, assuming external demand remains stable. Software exporters, cybersecurity providers, AI implementation advisers, cloud migration teams, fintech infrastructure companies and business-process specialists are likely to outperform.
The most attractive part of the sector is its exportability. Unlike construction or retail, Serbian software and services companies can sell into the EU, US and regional markets without needing large physical assets. That gives the sector a natural hedge against domestic demand fluctuations.
Serbia’s new SEPA connectivity strengthens the case. On May 5, the NBS said Serbia’s banking sector was operationally ready to execute SEPA Credit Transfer payments and that 18 domestic commercial banks would handle SEPA payments for citizens and businesses. The European Commission said Serbia’s entry into SEPA schemes would make euro transactions with the EU faster and cheaper and could save individuals and businesses up to €400mn.
For technology companies, SEPA is not merely a banking change. It is a product opportunity. Fintechs can build tools around euro invoicing, automated reconciliation, cross-border collections and SME treasury. Accounting platforms can simplify payment matching. Banks can compete on user experience rather than only on fees. Freelancers and small agencies can make themselves easier to pay.
The next growth phase will therefore be less about generic outsourcing and more about specialised capability. Serbian firms selling undifferentiated development hours may face pricing pressure from clients and competition from other markets. Firms offering domain expertise — payments, cybersecurity, industrial software, AI integration, ERP implementation, data infrastructure — should be able to defend margins better.
The sector’s vulnerability is wages. ICT salaries have been rising for years, and the broader wage backdrop remains strong. Serbia’s average net wage reached RSD121,650 in March, with first-quarter average net wages up 8.9 per cent in real terms from a year earlier.
For tech firms, wage growth is double-edged. It supports domestic consumption and helps retain talent in Serbia, but it raises delivery costs. Companies billing in euros or dollars can manage this better than companies dependent on domestic contracts in dinars.
The investor lens should also change. In the earlier phase of Serbia’s technology story, revenue growth was enough. In the next phase, investors should look for recurring revenue, pricing power, low churn, specialised skills and the ability to convert revenue into cash.
The strongest companies in H2 will be those that behave less like labour brokers and more like product or expertise businesses. They will automate internal processes, standardise delivery, deepen vertical specialisation and use Serbia’s improved payment connectivity to serve European customers more smoothly.
Serbia’s ICT sector remains a growth engine. It is just no longer a low-cost growth engine.
