Serbia’s industrial economy entered the second quarter of 2026 with stronger manufacturing and export momentum, but the underlying recovery remained uneven. Total industrial production increased 3.4% year on year in April, although growth across January-April was limited to 0.2%, showing that the strong April result followed a subdued opening quarter rather than a broad acceleration from the start of the year.
Manufacturing supplied the clearest growth signal. Output increased 5.3% in April and 1% over the first four months, while mining grew 4.8% in April but remained 1.3% lower cumulatively. Electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply declined 7.7% year on year in April, extending its January-April contraction to 2.3%.
The divergence between manufacturing and electricity production is becoming an important commercial issue. Serbian factories are increasing output while the domestic power sector is generating less electricity. Continued underperformance by thermal generation, hydropower or both could increase electricity imports, weaken the export position of Elektroprivreda Srbije and expose industrial buyers to higher regional wholesale prices.
Capital-goods production was the strongest component, rising 11.8% in April and 12.9% in January-April. This corresponds with the production ramp-up at Stellantis in Kragujevac, stronger output from automotive suppliers and expanding demand for electrical equipment, machinery and investment-related products.
Intermediate-goods production increased 2.9% in April and 1.3% cumulatively, indicating moderate improvement across upstream manufacturing. Non-durable consumer goods rose 1.2% in April but remained 0.6% lower over the four-month period.
Durable consumer goods remained the clear weak point. Production fell 19.7% year on year in April and 13.8% in January-April, suggesting difficult conditions for furniture, household equipment, appliances and other discretionary products. Stronger retail sales of non-food goods have not yet translated into comparable growth for domestic durable-goods manufacturers, implying that part of consumer demand is being met through imports.
Inventories increased significantly. Total industrial stocks were 12.9% higher in January-April than a year earlier, manufacturing inventories rose 11.7%, and mining stocks increased 54.7%. Higher stocks may support future deliveries, but they can also indicate slower shipments or an accumulation of unsold material. For mining companies, the scale of the increase warrants attention because it can tie up cash and raise storage and logistics requirements.
Industrial turnover offered a more positive reading. By April, total turnover stood 12.4% above the 2025 monthly average, with domestic-market turnover 6.7% higher and foreign-market turnover 18.6% higher. Export sales were therefore expanding considerably faster than domestic industrial turnover.
Serbia’s industrial profile is becoming more export-oriented and more concentrated around capital goods, vehicles, electrical equipment and metals. That structure can support higher productivity and export revenue, but it also creates greater dependence on imported components, foreign demand and reliable electricity supply.
The April improvement is commercially credible, particularly in manufacturing, but the cumulative 0.2% industrial growth rate remains modest. A durable expansion will require stronger domestic energy production, conversion of rising inventories into sales and wider growth beyond automotive and capital-goods manufacturing.
