Inflation expectations in Serbia show mixed trends across different sectors, according to recent surveys.
The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) reports that the financial sector’s inflation expectations for one year ahead rose slightly from 3.5 percent in June to 3.98 percent in July. In contrast, the Bloomberg survey for August indicated a further increase to 3.6 percent. Most financial institutions remain confident, with 22 out of 23 expecting inflation to stay within the central bank’s target over the next 12 months. Expectations for two years ahead increased from 3.2 to 3.5 percent, while those for three years ahead slightly declined from 3.2 to 3.1 percent.
Business expectations also shifted. In July, businesses anticipated one-year inflation at six percent, up from five percent in previous months. In the short term, 30 percent of businesses expected input price increases (up from 21 percent in June), and 39 percent expected rises in the prices of finished products (up from 26 percent). Looking 12 months ahead, half of businesses foresee higher input costs, and nearly two-thirds expect higher product prices.
Regarding production and turnover, 25 percent of businesses anticipate growth in the next three months, down from 31 percent in June. Expectations for growth over the next 12 months remained stable at 44 percent.
Citizens continue to hold the most pessimistic outlook. In the short term, they expect inflation of 15 percent, while medium-term expectations are 10 percent. Around 45 percent of respondents believe prices have increased significantly over the past year, slightly below last year’s 46 percent. Meanwhile, 51 percent reported moderate or slight price increases. Looking ahead, 28 percent of citizens expect significant price increases over the next 12 months, while 62 percent anticipate moderate or slight increases.
Overall, the data indicate that while the financial sector remains relatively confident, businesses are preparing for higher costs, and the public remains wary of significant price growth.
