Financial sector inflation expectations in Serbia rose slightly from 3.9% in February to 4% in March, according to the latest Ninamedia survey published by the National Bank of Serbia. While showing an upward trend, these projections remain within the central bank’s target range. Bloomberg’s April survey recorded similar financial sector expectations at 3.6%, up from 3.5% in March.
The composite measure of inflation expectations followed this pattern, reaching 3.65% in March compared to February’s 3.5%, maintaining the average observed over recent months. Medium-term expectations also saw modest increases – two-year projections rose to 3.6% (from 3.5%), while three-year forecasts remained stable at 3.5%.
Business sector representatives maintained their short-term inflation expectations at 5%, consistent with the past year’s average. Their two and three-year projections stand at 4.5%, continuing to fluctuate between 4-5%.
In contrast, household expectations remain significantly higher than other sectors, with March surveys showing one-year inflation projections of 15%. Citizens maintain 10% expectations for both two and three-year horizons. However, qualitative research suggests the public anticipates slightly lower inflation over the next 12 months compared to their perceptions of past year inflation.
The data reveals a persistent gap between professional and consumer expectations, with financial institutions and businesses projecting moderate inflation while households prepare for significantly higher price growth. All sectors appear to expect relative stability in the medium term, with projections clustering between 3.5-5% for 2-3 year horizons.
