At the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) conference, Vice-Governor Željko Jović projected that inflation will remain within the target range of 3 ± 1.5% for the next two years. As of the end of 2024, inflation stood at 4.3%. Factors contributing to stable inflation include restrictive monetary conditions, lower import inflation, expected declines in world energy prices, and the upcoming agricultural season, which may reduce food prices.
Jović also discussed a global phenomenon known as “cheapflation,” where cheaper brands see faster price increases than more expensive counterparts. According to NBS analysis, between 2022-2024, cheaper food brands had a price increase 5% higher than premium brands.
Serbia’s economy showed resilience despite global challenges. GDP growth in Q4 of 2024 was 3.3%, with full-year growth reaching 3.9%. Foreign direct investment reached a record €5.2 billion, while capital expenditures amounted to €6 billion. Public debt stood at 47.6% of GDP, below the Maastricht criterion.
In response to inflation, the NBS bought €2.725 billion on the foreign exchange market in 2024 to maintain stability. Jović emphasized that cautious monetary policy is necessary due to geopolitical tensions and rising global commodity prices, which could impact energy and agricultural costs.
The NBS’s inflation report showed that in December 2024, year-on-year inflation remained at 4.3%. Base inflation slowed slightly to 5.3%, driven by rising prices in household goods and clothing. Energy prices rose 0.5%, primarily due to oil derivatives.
The NBS aims to preserve financial stability and focus on long-term sustainable growth despite global uncertainties.
