Serbia’s inflation profile has changed. The country is no longer dealing with broad, post-shock price acceleration. Annual inflation stood at 2.8% in March 2026, remaining below the central point of the National Bank of Serbia’s target band. Yet the underlying risk has not disappeared. It has shifted toward energy, utilities, fuel and selected services.
The MAT analysis shows that monthly inflation was 0.5% in both February and March, while annual inflation rose from 2.5% to 2.8%. The increase was driven by non-core inflation, not by a broad acceleration in underlying prices. Core inflation eased on a monthly basis from 0.3% to 0.1%, while non-core inflation rose from 0.7% to 0.8%.
Fuel was the clearest pressure point. Diesel prices increased 5.1% month-on-month, while petrol rose 4.2%. Tobacco increased 2.3%, and alcoholic beverages 1.2%. These increases were partly offset by a 3.6% decline in fruit and vegetable prices, but the fuel signal matters more for the medium term because transport costs feed into goods distribution, agriculture, construction and services.
On a year-on-year basis, core inflation remained at 4.2%, while non-core inflation rose from 1.0% to 1.7%. Electricity prices, tobacco, fruit and nuts, water and waste services, healthcare, recreation, restaurants and rents were among the relevant contributors. That list shows how inflation pressure has moved away from a simple food-and-energy shock into a mix of administered, semi-administered and service prices.
The energy component is the most sensitive. Serbia’s power, fuel and refinery-linked risks intersect with inflation expectations. The unresolved issue around the Pančevo refinery can affect fuel supply, import needs and domestic pricing. Global oil-market volatility can quickly reprice diesel and petrol. Electricity prices, even when regulated, influence household budgets and industrial costs. Water and waste-service prices affect municipal cost structures and consumer baskets.
This explains the National Bank of Serbia’s caution. A reference rate of 5.75% may look high relative to inflation below 3%, but the central bank is managing risk, not only current data. Imported energy costs, geopolitical volatility and domestic energy-sector uncertainty can move inflation expectations faster than core prices suggest.
For households, the current inflation environment is supportive because wages are rising faster than prices. Average net wages increased 9.5% in real terms in February, supporting retail turnover and consumption. But households are more sensitive to fuel, food, utilities and rent than headline inflation sometimes suggests. A stable aggregate rate can still feel uneven across income groups.
For companies, the inflation mix affects margins. Fuel and utilities raise operating costs. Wage growth raises labour costs. Stable headline inflation helps planning, but sector-specific cost pressure remains high in logistics, agriculture, retail, construction and energy-intensive production. Businesses therefore face a more complex cost environment than the headline 2.8% rate implies.
For investors, Serbia’s inflation story is now less about overheating and more about administered and imported price risk. That is a better problem than broad inflation instability, but it still matters for discount rates, consumer demand, wage bargaining and project operating costs.
Serbia has regained inflation credibility. The next risk sits in the price categories that are hardest to control through domestic monetary policy alone: oil, fuel, electricity, utilities and regulated services. This is why stable inflation has not yet translated into an easy policy cycle.
