Serbia’s ICT and business-services sector remains one of the country’s most important external earners, but the June 2026MAT report suggests that the sector may be moving from rapid expansion into a more mature phase. In the first quarter of 2026, exports of telecommunications, computer and information services reached €1.099bn, still a major contribution to Serbia’s services surplus, but only 0.4% higher year on year.
That figure deserves attention because Serbia’s IT export story has often been treated as a structural growth certainty. For years, the sector benefited from a deep engineering pool, competitive wages, strong English-language capacity, nearshoring demand, gaming, software development, outsourcing, cloud services and regional entrepreneurship. But a 0.4% export increase in Q1 indicates that the easy-growth phase may be ending.
The broader services account remains strong. MAT reports a goods-and-services deficit of €509.0mn in January–March 2026, much smaller than €929.3mn a year earlier, with total exports of goods and services rising 6.4% to €12.288bn. The ICT component remains large enough to support the current account, but the slowdown changes the valuation narrative around the sector.
The reason is not necessarily weakness in Serbian talent. The global technology cycle has changed. Clients are under cost pressure, artificial intelligence is altering software-delivery models, venture funding remains more selective, and European customers are demanding more sophisticated compliance, cybersecurity, data-governance and sector-specific platforms. Serbia can still compete, but not simply as a lower-cost software labour market. The next stage requires specialization.
The most investable segments are likely to be enterprise AI integration, industrial software, cybersecurity, embedded systems, energy-market software, fintech compliance, gaming infrastructure, logistics platforms and engineering-led digital services. Serbia’s industrial base gives it an advantage where software meets manufacturing, energy, mining, logistics and environmental compliance. The country’s emerging CBAM, electricity-trading, grid, industrial automation and environmental-monitoring needs can also create domestic demand for exportable products.
The forecast for 2026 is moderate rather than weak. ICT-service exports should remain above €4bn annualized if quarterly levels hold, but double-digit growth should not be assumed without a clear recovery in European technology spending. In the base case, ICT exports grow in low single digits, preserving the services surplus but no longer masking industrial weaknesses. In the upside case, AI adoption, nearshoring and enterprise digitalization lift growth back toward mid-single digits in 2027. In the downside case, price pressure and AI-driven productivity gains reduce billable outsourcing demand.
Serbia’s IT sector is still one of the strongest parts of the economy. The market signal has changed from expansion at any cost to higher-value positioning. The next competitive edge will come less from headcount and more from product depth, regulated-sector expertise and integration with industrial clients.
