The Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) will meet to discuss economic developments and decide on the reference interest rate. This is the first meeting since US President Donald Trump announced additional tariffs, which include Serbia. Despite inflation in Serbia being at 4.5%, the upper limit of the target range, economists expect the reference interest rate to remain unchanged.
In the previous session on March 13, the NBS kept the reference interest rate at 5.75% for the sixth consecutive month, with deposit rates at 4.5% and credit facility rates at 7.0%. Ljubodrag Savić, a professor at the University of Belgrade’s Faculty of Economics, predicts the key interest rate will stay the same.
Savić noted that while the tariffs introduced by Trump could stir up the global economy, Serbia would be less affected. He argued that the fundamental parameters affecting the reference interest rate remain unchanged, and the economic uncertainties are greater in the world economy than in Serbia’s. Both the NBS and the government are committed to maintaining consistent economic and monetary policies.
Savić also highlighted that raising the reference interest rate would send a negative signal, implying the government anticipates higher inflation, which could harm investor confidence. Given the recent investment rating and the current economic uncertainties, he believes the NBS will maintain the interest rate to offer stability to the Serbian economy.
Overall, Savić expects the central bank to prioritize economic stability and keep the key interest rate unchanged.
