The value of Serbian real estate transactions approached €2bn in the first quarter of 2026, the highest quarterly figure recorded and an increase of 13.9 per cent from a year earlier. The number of contracts increased by a more moderate 6.2 per cent, to approximately 30,800.
Transaction values are therefore rising more than twice as fast as transaction volumes. The difference points to higher prices, more expensive new construction and a growing concentration of activity in premium urban markets.
Belgrade remains the country’s dominant property market. Demand is supported by employment concentration, internal migration, foreign residents, professional services and the continuing expansion of higher-priced residential developments. Novi Sad benefits from its university, technology sector and proximity to Central European markets, while Niš and Kragujevac are supported by industrial, logistics and infrastructure investment.
Lower mortgage rates have brought more bank-financed purchasers into the market. The average rate on new housing loans fell to approximately 4.5 per cent by June 2026, helping offset some of the impact of rising prices.
Cash nevertheless remains unusually important. Property continues to function as a store of value for household savings and private capital, partly because Serbia has a shallow domestic equity market and relatively few accessible long-term investment products. This makes the property market less immediately vulnerable to rising mortgage rates but more difficult to assess through conventional affordability indicators.
The headline growth does not mean that all locations or projects are equally strong. The market is becoming increasingly fragmented. Apartments in established Belgrade districts, well-connected parts of Novi Sad and strong regional centres can maintain high occupancy and resale liquidity. Peripheral projects without transport, schools, utilities or employment access face slower absorption.
Developers are confronting higher construction costs, land prices, wages and financing expenses. Even where final selling prices are increasing, development margins may not improve. Delays in permits, grid connections, utility infrastructure and contractor mobilisation can add materially to project costs.
The strongest segment remains compact residential units aimed at owner-occupiers, students, professionals and long-term rental demand. Larger premium apartments depend on a narrower group of buyers and can remain on the market longer despite high asking prices.
The market’s next test will come after the peak of Expo 2027 construction. Belgrade currently benefits from strong infrastructure spending, temporary labour demand and expectations of additional tourism and commercial activity. Properties whose value is supported by permanent transport and urban improvements should retain stronger fundamentals. Developments priced mainly on short-term Expo expectations will face a more demanding absorption environment once the investment cycle slows.
