The Serbian dinar remained almost unchanged against the euro during the first half of 2026, depreciating by only 0.1%. Such stability is valuable in an economy where a significant share of savings, loans and commercial contracts is still connected to the euro. It limits imported inflation, reduces uncertainty for businesses and protects borrowers with foreign-currency-indexed obligations.
The exchange rate is not operating on autopilot. During the first half of the year, the National Bank of Serbia was a net seller of €755 million in the foreign-exchange market. Depreciation pressures were most evident in the first quarter, reflecting global uncertainty and seasonal demand for foreign currency.
Conditions changed from April. The NBS intervened more frequently as a buyer than as a seller, including net purchases of €405 million in June. This reversal indicates that foreign-currency supply strengthened after the first-quarter pressure and allowed the central bank to replenish rather than draw on reserves.
Serbia’s reserve position provides substantial protection against external shocks. Gross foreign-exchange reserves reached €29.6 billion in June, close to the record level reached a month earlier. They covered slightly less than seven months of imports of goods and services and were equivalent to approximately 164% of the M1 money supply—well above commonly used reserve-adequacy thresholds.
Gold has become a more prominent part of that protection. The NBS held 54.6 tonnes in June, more than three times the quantity recorded in 2012. Gold represented slightly less than 21% of the total value of reserves.
Sovereign-risk indicators also reflect stronger macroeconomic fundamentals, although rating agencies do not yet provide a uniform assessment. Standard & Poor’s rates Serbia BBB- with a stable outlook, placing it at investment grade. Fitch maintains a BB+ rating with a positive outlook, while Moody’s assigns Ba2 with a stable outlook. Serbia’s euro-denominated risk premium stood at 167 basis points at the end of June, eight basis points above the end-2025 level.
The split between the agencies is instructive. Serbia has crossed the investment-grade threshold with one major agency, but further improvements in fiscal credibility, external balances and institutional strength will be needed for broader convergence.
High reserves give the NBS the capacity to smooth disorderly currency movements. They do not remove the underlying sources of foreign-exchange risk, including energy imports, global capital flows and geopolitical shocks. The durability of currency stability will ultimately depend on exports, investment inflows and domestic confidence, with intervention serving as a stabilizer rather than a substitute for those fundamentals.
