Retail, domestic tourism and hospitality remain supported by wages and real spending, but rising labour, fuel and service costs will make the second half more selective.
Serbia’s consumer economy has not broken. Retail sales are rising in real terms, wages are growing and domestic tourism is supporting hospitality. Yet the second half of 2026 is likely to be more difficult for consumer-facing companies than the headline data suggest.
Retail trade turnover rose 8.3 per cent at current prices and 5.6 per cent at constant prices in April compared with a year earlier. In the first four months, retail turnover rose 9 per cent nominally and 7.9 per cent in real terms. Fuel retailing, food and non-food products all recorded real growth.
Wages remain the main support. The average net wage reached RSD121,650 in March, while average net wages in the first quarter rose 11.7 per cent nominally and 8.9 per cent in real terms from a year earlier. The median net wage was RSD92,753, a reminder that purchasing power is still uneven across households.
Tourism is also helping. Tourist arrivals rose 8.6 per cent year on year in April and overnight stays increased 3.8 per cent. Domestic overnight stays rose 8.2 per cent, while foreign overnight stays slipped 0.2 per cent.
The base-case forecast is that retail remains positive in H2, but real growth slows from the strong January-April pace to low-to-mid single digits. Domestic tourism should outperform foreign tourism, while hospitality revenues should continue growing but with tighter margins.
The reason is inflation composition. Consumer prices rose 3.5 per cent year on year in May and 0.3 per cent from April. Transport prices rose 1 per cent month on month, while housing and utilities, restaurants and accommodation, health, clothing and personal-care categories also increased.
That mix matters for businesses. A restaurant can have more guests and still make less money if wages, rent, utilities and food inputs rise faster than menu prices. A retailer can increase turnover and still lose margin if transport and inventory costs climb. A hotel can improve occupancy and still face pressure from labour and energy.
The most exposed companies are mid-market operators with limited pricing power. Discount retailers and value grocers can attract price-sensitive consumers. Premium restaurants and hotels can sell experience to higher-income customers. The middle is more difficult: too expensive for bargain hunters, not differentiated enough for premium buyers.
Domestic tourism is likely to remain one of the stronger segments. The April data suggest Serbian households are still willing to spend on local travel. Spas, mountain resorts, weekend destinations and regional leisure operators should benefit, particularly if they tailor packages to domestic visitors rather than relying heavily on foreign arrivals.
Food retail should remain defensive, but competition will be intense. Grocery chains with private labels, loyalty programmes and efficient logistics are better placed than smaller stores with weaker purchasing power. Fuel-efficient delivery models will also matter more if transport costs remain volatile.
Hospitality should treat the second half as a pricing and productivity test. Operators will need to manage menus, staffing, energy consumption and supplier terms more actively. Those able to raise prices selectively while protecting traffic should outperform. Those relying only on higher footfall will find the margin squeeze harder.
The consumer outlook is therefore constructive but not carefree. Wage growth gives households spending power. Retail volumes show resilience. Domestic tourism is alive. But the cost base has become less forgiving.
Serbia’s consumer economy still offers growth. It will reward operators that understand that revenue is no longer the same thing as profit.
