Journalist Miša Brkić recently discussed the ongoing situation regarding the sanctions imposed by the United States on the Oil Industry of Serbia (NIS). He shared his thoughts on the potential negotiations between Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and US President Donald Trump, suggesting that Vučić hopes for Trump’s understanding and support through gestures reminiscent of “18th and 19th-century international politics.” One such gesture, Brkić points out, might be the General Staff building, which Serbia is using in an attempt to “squeeze through like a dog through the dew.”
Dušan Bajatović, the general director of Srbijagas, also weighed in on the matter, expressing expectations that the deadline for the US sanctions on NIS would be extended. According to Bajatović, Serbia may receive a delay of up to 30 days, though anything beyond that would be unlikely. He remarked that Serbia’s request for a delay is based on the hope that some kind of global agreement between the US and Russia might lead to a resolution that benefits Serbia. While Brkić acknowledges this hope, he also stresses that no such agreement has yet emerged, especially regarding the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Brkić suggests that there could be an understanding between the US and Serbia, possibly supported by mutual gestures and international diplomacy, like the potential gifting of the General Staff building to Trump for development purposes. However, he emphasizes that it remains to be seen whether these negotiations are driven by personal agreements or whether the US will approach the matter as a “normal country.”
If the sanctions remain in place, Brkić explains, NIS may face financial collapse, with bankruptcy as the only viable solution. He highlights the inevitable difficulties when a private company can no longer procure raw materials, pay workers, or settle debts with suppliers. Such a company, he argues, would have to declare bankruptcy, as it cannot survive in the market.
The situation raises questions about how Russia might react. Brkić believes that Russia would protect its interests in this case, possibly through international arbitration. However, he doesn’t think that such a legal route would delay bankruptcy for long. Given the importance of NIS for Serbia’s energy supply, Brkić predicts that new suppliers would likely enter the market, mitigating the risk of a national energy crisis. He anticipates that a mix of private and state-owned companies would replace NIS, reducing the likelihood of widespread public panic over fuel shortages.
In the event that the sanctions remain, Brkić argues, the American side could be the one to propose a solution for the Russian share in NIS. With the US acting as a third party in the situation, it may have the potential to broker a resolution that would allow NIS to continue operating. However, the final outcome remains uncertain as the political and economic dynamics continue to evolve.
