Serbia’s improving growth outlook is strengthening the case for business expansion, but the durability of the upswing will depend on whether the current construction and spending cycle leaves the economy with assets that generate income beyond the next major event.
Real GDP increased 3.8% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, following 3.2% growth in the first quarter, according to the statistical office. Seasonally adjusted output rose 1.5% from the preceding quarter.
The National Bank of Serbia said in its September assessment that risks to its 3.2% growth forecast for 2026 had shifted upward after stronger-than-expected second-quarter activity and improved agricultural prospects.
For 2027, the central bank projected growth of 4.5%, with the international EXPO exhibition contributing to the expected acceleration.
Those projections establish a favourable near-term direction. They also raise a longer-term question for investors and policymakers: how much of the activity will create recurring business once the immediate construction and event cycle passes?
The latest national accounts show that construction value added increased 9.1% in the second quarter, outpacing the 3.3% rise in gross fixed investment.
The two measures capture different aspects of the economy and should not be treated as interchangeable. Their divergence nevertheless underlines the need to look beyond visible building activity when assessing the strength of capital formation.
Construction can support employment, materials purchases and professional services while work is under way. Its lasting return depends on how the completed asset is used.
Transport infrastructure can reduce delivery times and connect firms with customers. Commercial facilities can support new tenants and services. Event-related assets can generate future activity if there is sustained demand and a workable operating model.
The economic benefit is weaker when utilisation disappoints or maintenance obligations exceed the income and productivity gains the asset creates.
For private companies, this changes the way opportunities should be assessed. A contract linked to the construction phase may be attractive even if demand is temporary, provided its duration and risks are understood.
A permanent expansion based on the same demand requires a different level of confidence.
Equipment purchases, additional premises and long-term hiring should be tested against the period after the initial project is completed. Companies need to know whether they can serve other customers or redeploy capacity when the current order cycle ends.
The distinction is particularly important for hospitality, transport, events and related services. A large international gathering can increase demand, but event attendance alone does not establish the year-round market for additional capacity.
Operators should assess their post-event customer base, operating expenses and competitive position before assuming that temporary activity will become permanent revenue.
The same principle applies to public assets. Their future operating and maintenance costs need to be considered alongside the initial construction budget. An asset delivered on time can still create a financial burden if its use and funding are not clear.
Serbia’s external position provides some support for the broader outlook. The current-account deficit narrowed to €1.9 billion in January–July, while foreign-exchange reserves stood at €30.8 billion at the end of August, according to the NBS.
Those indicators matter for resilience, but they do not remove the need to generate sustainable export and service income. External buffers can help absorb shocks; they cannot substitute indefinitely for competitive production.
Domestic demand is also contributing to activity. Household consumption increased 4% in real terms in the second quarter. That supports retailers and service providers, while also creating demand for imported goods.
The challenge is to connect stronger spending with a wider domestic supply response. When local firms can meet additional demand competitively, more of the benefit remains in the economy. Where capacity or product availability is limited, imports fulfil a larger share.
Professional and technical services may offer one route to a lasting benefit from the investment cycle. Engineering, project management, maintenance and specialised business services can build experience through current projects and apply it to future work.
That transition requires companies to retain skills and develop customers beyond the initial programme. The value lies in the capability created, not simply in the temporary increase in billing.
For the growth outlook, the principal risk is therefore not only that activity slows. It is that a strong period produces too little improvement in productivity and recurring revenue to sustain the next stage.
The relevant measures will include the use of completed infrastructure, the performance of new facilities, private investment following public projects and the ability of domestic suppliers to win repeat work.
Serbia is entering the final part of 2026 with a stronger growth picture than its earlier forecast suggested. The more consequential result will be visible later, when the construction work is finished and the new assets must justify their cost.
