Serbia’s external trade data have become one of the strongest macro signals of 2026. In January–May, total goods trade reached €32.38bn, up 3.9% year-on-year, but the more important shift was not the aggregate volume. It was the changing balance between exports and imports. Goods exports rose 7.7% to €14.70bn, while imports increased by only 1.0% to €17.68bn. The result was a goods deficit of €2.98bn, down 22.9%, or €884.2mn, compared with the same period of 2025. Export coverage of imports improved to 83.1%, compared with 77.9% a year earlier.
That change gives Serbia a better macro-financial story. A smaller goods deficit reduces external pressure, supports the current account and gives policymakers more room to manage the dinar without relying as heavily on capital inflows. It also strengthens the argument that Serbia’s industrial platform, despite its uneven internal structure, is still able to generate export growth in a difficult European environment. This matters because Serbia remains deeply exposed to the industrial cycle of the EU, particularly Germany and Italy, and because external demand has been anything but easy for European manufacturers.
The composition of trade shows the strategic direction more clearly. Manufacturing remains the backbone of Serbia’s export structure, accounting for 87.9% of goods exports and recording cumulative export growth of 8.6% in the first five months. Mining, although much smaller in weight with a 7.3% share, recorded a strong 35.7% rise in exports. At the same time, exports of electricity and agricultural products fell by a combined €275.3mn, or 31.7%, which shows that the improvement did not come from a broad commodity or power export cycle. It came mainly from manufactured goods and selected industrial categories.
The partner-country structure underlines Serbia’s European dependence. EU member states accounted for 58.8% of total goods exchange in the first five months of 2026, up from 57.8% a year earlier. Germany remained Serbia’s largest trade partner, with a 13.2% share of total goods exchange, followed by China at 11.0% and Italy, whose share rose from 6.2%to 7.7%. The rise of Italy in the trade structure is particularly important because it points to the effect of Serbia’s automotive export cycle and the changing direction of industrial flows.
There is also a regional recalibration. Serbia traditionally posts trade surpluses with neighbouring markets, but MAT records a reduction of the surplus with Bulgaria by 45%, North Macedonia by 13% and Montenegro by 4.7%. Trade with Romania moved into deficit at €208.2mn, compared with a surplus of €154.1mn a year earlier. At the same time, the surplus with Bosnia and Herzegovina increased by 124.8% to €454.1mn, while Serbia recorded a surplus with Italy of €72.6mn, reversing a deficit of €324.7mn in the previous year.
This trade improvement should not be read as a full external-sector transformation. Serbia still runs a sizeable goods deficit, and its export strength remains tied to several sectors with concentrated ownership, foreign supply chains and exposure to EU demand. But the direction is economically meaningful. The country is exporting more, importing more slowly, and improving the ratio between domestic industrial output and external purchases. For banks, investors and industrial developers, that is a stronger macro base than Serbia had a year earlier.
