Serbia entered the middle of 2026 with a markedly stronger external trade position, helped by a favourable combination of higher export prices, growing industrial shipments and cheaper imported goods. The improvement was substantial enough to reduce the country’s merchandise trade deficit by almost €900mn in five months, even though physical import demand continued to expand more quickly than export volumes.
The Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia’s foreign-trade price indices for January–May 2026 show that the euro value of exports within the representative product sample increased by 9.8% compared with the same period of 2025. Export unit values rose by 5.1%, while physical export volume expanded by 4.5%. Import value increased by only 2.0%, despite a 6.6% increase in physical volume, because import unit values declined by 4.3%.
That divergence lifted Serbia’s terms-of-trade index to 109.8, indicating that export unit values improved by approximately 9.8% relative to import unit values. Serbia was able to purchase more imported goods for every unit of export revenue, an external-price advantage that eased pressure on the trade balance and reduced imported cost pressure for companies dependent on foreign equipment, components, chemicals and energy.
The complete customs data provide the financial scale. Merchandise exports reached €14.70bn in the first five months of 2026, up 7.7%, while imports increased by 1.0% to €17.68bn. The trade deficit narrowed from €3.86bn to €2.98bn, an improvement of €884mn, while the export-to-import coverage ratio rose from approximately 77.9% to 83.1%.
The difference between the 7.7% increase in total customs exports and the 9.8% value increase reported in the price-index publication reflects methodology rather than a contradiction. The unit-value calculation is based on a comparable product sample covering 96.1% of exports and 91.9% of imports. It is designed to distinguish changes in average realised values from changes in physical volume, whereas the customs total includes the complete structure of traded goods.
Manufacturing remained the principal source of external revenue. Manufacturing exports reached €12.93bn, equivalent to almost 88% of total goods exports, and increased by 8.6%. Manufacturing imports rose by 5.8% to €13.17bn, reducing the sector’s trade deficit from €555mn to €246mn.
Within the representative manufacturing basket, export unit values increased by 3.5% and physical volume by 5.4%. Import unit values declined by 1.7%, while import volume grew by 8.8%. The manufacturing terms-of-trade index improved by 5.3%, but the volume figures confirm that Serbian factories still rely heavily on imported materials, equipment and intermediate products.
The most significant improvement came from capital goods. Exports in this category increased by 27.1% to €4.18bn, while imports rose by 5.3% to €3.31bn. The capital-goods trade surplus consequently expanded from €153mn to €877mn. Motor vehicles were the dominant contributor, but machinery, fabricated metal products and selected electronic equipment also supported the result.
Intermediate-goods trade moved into a larger surplus. Exports rose by 9.3% to €6.45bn, while imports increased by 6.1% to €6.12bn, producing a surplus of €326mn, compared with €128mn a year earlier. This points to stronger industrial exports, although the rapid growth of imported intermediate inputs confirms that a considerable share of Serbian manufacturing remains embedded in cross-border production networks.
The improvement was also visible in trade with the European Union, Serbia’s most important market. Exports to the EU increased by 9.8% to €9.27bn, while imports rose by 2.2% to €9.76bn. The EU trade deficit narrowed from €1.10bn to €486mn, accounting for more than two-thirds of the reduction in Serbia’s total trade deficit.
The EU absorbed 63.1% of Serbian exports, up from 61.9%, and supplied 55.2% of imports. Export growth was particularly strong in trade with Italy, where Serbian shipments increased by 61.5% to €1.29bn. Exports to France rose by 23.8%, to Spain by 39.0%, to the United Kingdom by 48.0%, and to Greece by 88.3%. Germany remained Serbia’s largest individual export market, with shipments of €2.20bn.
Geographic diversification remained limited by the size of the country’s Asian trade deficit. Exports to Asia increased by 12.0% to €1.46bn, but imports reached €4.26bn. Trade with China alone produced exports of €883mn and imports of €2.69bn, leaving a deficit of more than €1.8bn. China supplied 15.2% of all Serbian imports but purchased only 6.0%of its exports.
Serbia’s regional position remained strongly positive. Exports to the Western Balkan and broader CEFTA market reached €1.92bn, against imports of €639mn, producing a surplus of €1.28bn. This surplus was larger than a year earlier despite a modest decline in regional export value, because imports from the group contracted more sharply.
The less favourable part of the external account was energy. Energy exports fell to €347mn, while imports remained above €2.02bn, leaving a deficit of approximately €1.68bn. The decline in international import prices reduced the nominal cost of physical energy demand, but it did not remove the structural gap between Serbia’s domestic energy production and its requirements for crude oil, petroleum products and gas.
The first five months of 2026 therefore brought an improvement in both trade pricing and industrial composition. Export revenues were increasingly supported by capital goods, vehicles, mining and higher-processing industries, while cheaper imports limited the financial effect of growing domestic demand. The trade deficit remained sizeable, but its structure became less dependent on an indiscriminate expansion of imports and more closely connected to identifiable energy, technology and Asian supply-chain exposures.
The durability of the improvement will depend on whether physical export growth can continue after the favourable price effect begins to weaken. Export volumes increased by 4.5%, but import volumes rose by 6.6%. Serbia’s trade balance has gained breathing space from better relative prices; its next test will be converting that advantage into sustained productivity, domestic supplier development and a larger share of locally created value.
