Serbia’s trade geography is changing in a way that reveals both opportunity and risk. MAT notes that Serbia recorded a first surplus with Italy of €95.6mn in January–April 2026, driven largely by car exports. At the same time, traditional surpluses with some regional markets narrowed, while Serbia moved into a €163mn deficit with Romania. This is a meaningful shift in the country’s external trade pattern.
The Italy surplus is symbolically important. Italy has long been one of Serbia’s major trade partners, and the automotive link through Stellantis has now changed the balance. Vehicle exports from Serbia can quickly move bilateral trade into surplus, especially when production ramps up and demand is present. That gives Serbia a stronger position inside EU trade flows.
But the surplus with Italy is also concentrated. It depends heavily on automotive exports, which means it may not reflect a broad expansion of Serbian products into the Italian market. A durable surplus would require more machinery, food products, metal goods, furniture, chemicals, electrical equipment and industrial services. Automotive exports open the door, but they do not by themselves diversify the trade relationship.
The narrowing of surpluses with Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Montenegro is also important. Serbia traditionally performs strongly in neighbouring markets because of brand recognition, logistics proximity and old commercial ties. Weaker regional surpluses may reflect stronger imports, softer demand, price effects or changes in energy and commodity trade. Regional markets remain valuable, but they cannot be taken for granted.
The Romania deficit is a warning. Romania is an EU member, a large regional economy and an increasingly important industrial and logistics hub. A Serbian deficit with Romania suggests that Serbia still imports higher-value or higher-volume goods from nearby EU economies while struggling to match that with sufficient exports.
The new trade map shows that Serbia is gaining in some EU channels while losing margin in parts of the region. That is not automatically negative. It may reflect industrial upgrading through automotive exports. But Serbia needs broader product penetration across both EU and regional markets. Trade strength built on one sector is vulnerable; trade strength built on many sectors becomes strategy.
