Serbia’s external trade reached €39.65bn during the first half of 2026, an increase of 5.8 per cent from a year earlier. The headline confirms the economy’s close integration with European industrial and consumer markets, but the structure of the external account is changing.
The current-account deficit narrowed to approximately €561mn during the first five months of 2026. In May alone, the deficit fell to about €125mn, helped by a larger services surplus, a smaller primary-income deficit and an improvement in the goods balance.
Services are becoming a more important stabiliser. Information technology, professional services, transport, logistics and tourism generate foreign-currency income without requiring the same volume of imported materials as heavy industry.
Tourist arrivals increased by 1.7 per cent year on year in June, while overnight stays rose by 2 per cent. Foreign visitor nights increased by 3.3 per cent, with Belgrade, Novi Sad, Subotica, Zlatibor, Kopaonik and the principal spa centres recording the strongest activity.
Tourism remains a useful contributor rather than a dominant export sector. ICT and professional services have greater potential to improve the balance of payments, particularly as European companies seek lower-cost engineering, software and back-office capacity closer to their home markets.
Goods exports remain concentrated around several large industrial operations. Zijin Mining and Zijin Copper in Bor, HBIS Serbia in Smederevo, the automotive complex around Stellantis in Kragujevac, tyre manufacturing, electrical equipment, chemicals and agricultural products represent critical sources of export revenue.
This concentration creates vulnerability. Operational disruptions, weaker European demand or company-level investment decisions can have a visible effect on national exports. Energy-intensive producers also face rising exposure to EU CBAM, carbon documentation requirements and the cost of verifiable low-carbon electricity.
Foreign direct investment is producing mixed signals. Gross inflows were approximately €369mn in the first quarter of 2026, around half the level recorded a year earlier. Net FDI subsequently reached about €596mn during the first five months, an annual increase of 36 per cent, partly because Serbian investment outflows were lower.
The improvement in net flows does not fully reverse the broader slowdown. Gross FDI declined to approximately €3.5bn in 2025, around 33.5 per cent below the record reached in 2024.
Serbia is entering a more selective phase of investment. Rising wages and labour shortages are reducing its appeal for basic labour-intensive manufacturing. New capital is more likely to target mining, processing, energy, logistics, electrical equipment, automated production, ICT and engineering services.
The shift can improve productivity but will produce fewer jobs per euro invested. Investment incentives will therefore need to reward domestic supplier integration, technology transfer, research activity, energy efficiency and export quality rather than employment numbers alone.
