The projected decline in world and European GDP due to the corona will be the largest since World War II, and several economic sectors in Serbia will have serious consequences, Radojka Nikolic, editor-in-chief of Business and Econometer magazines, told RTS today.
The fall in GDP this year at the global level will amount to 6% or 8.7 for the EU, and Serbia is the most affected in the field of machine and car industry, and that is tourism and traffic, she said.
– These are huge earthquakes and when the next year is included, the growth of 4 to 6 percent will still remain a minus, so the return to the level from 2019, which was marked as successful, is expected only in 2022 – she said.
As she assessed, the two lost years are bad for underdeveloped economies such as Serbia.
– When you look at the sectors – it is about the machine and car industry and that is the part where we are affected because the exporters are Smederevo Ironworks and Fiat – she said.
She added that the list of the 10 largest exporters from Serbia includes all foreign companies operating in Serbia except HIP Petrohemija, and foreign companies depend on parent companies.
Nikolic reminded that Zelezara shut down one furnace and will produce less because there is no demand for steel, and the workers in Fiat were on vacation and only now some of them have returned to work.
– The picture is bad, the economic future is not great for this year and the recovery will not be able to make up for what we lost – she said.
She believes that it would be good for the sectors most affected to have more state aid, and estimates that Serbia will borrow seven billion euros, thus increasing public debt and nullifying savings from before.
– All countries of the world are borrowing, it is allowed to go in that way to borrow and maintain production – she said.
According to her, many agencies in tourism will disappear due to the corona crisis, and those who used the minimum wage because they had the obligation not to lay off workers until November will get into trouble, and now the situation is unfavorable for the entire sector.
The textile industry, which had a rapid development with 100,000 employees, is now hit hard, she said, adding that the production of masks cannot compensate for the entire collection.
– A dramatic autumn awaits us, because in addition to the story about children going to school, there is also concern about job security and uncertainty about the virus, and the worst thing is that you have to take care of your health and work so that family businesses do not fail – she said, Tanjug writes.