The National Bank of Serbia has emerged as one of the more optimistic major forecasters of the country’s 2026-27 economy, particularly on growth and the external balance.
The NBS expects real GDP to expand 3.2% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027. The IMF’s June projection is lower at 2.8% and 4.0%, while the European Commission is at 2.8% and 3.9%. Consensus Economics is more cautious still, with 2.7% growth in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027. Serbia’s Ministry of Finance is closer to the central bank, projecting 3.0% this year and 4.5% next year.
The differences are not primarily philosophical. They reflect different assumptions about how quickly stronger first-half data, new export capacity and the Expo investment cycle translate into activity.
The NBS revised its own 2026 forecast upward from 3.0% to 3.2% after second-quarter growth accelerated to an estimated 3.6%. Services, agriculture, manufacturing and construction all performed better than expected, while exports proved more resilient despite weak European demand.
That resilience matters because the central bank is also far more optimistic about Serbia’s current account than several external institutions.
The IMF and European Commission expect the current-account deficit to be around 6% of GDP in 2026, reflecting high energy prices, infrastructure imports and subdued external demand. The NBS expects only around 4.1%, falling towards 3% in 2027.
The difference is large enough to alter the investment narrative. A 6% current-account deficit would make Serbia more dependent on sustained foreign-capital inflows during the infrastructure boom. A deficit near 4%, particularly with more than €30bn of foreign-exchange reserves, provides a significantly larger buffer.
The NBS has concrete data supporting its more favourable view. In the first six months of 2026, the current-account deficit was only €1.4bn, around 30% lower year on year. Exports of goods and services rose 7.9%, compared with 4.9% growth in imports.
The automotive sector is a major reason. Stellantis’s expanded production in Kragujevac pushed motor-vehicle exports up 51.1% in the first half, while mining exports increased 34.7%. The NBS argues that these increases reflect greater productive capacity rather than merely favourable prices, although copper prices also materially supported mining revenues.
The central bank also expects Expo 2027 to generate a temporary boost to service exports. Tourism and business services are projected to help turn net exports into a positive contributor to growth next year, adding roughly 0.7 percentage points to GDP.
The IMF and Commission recognise the same Expo effect but assume a larger starting external imbalance. Both expect the current-account deficit to narrow in 2027, with the IMF at around 4.5% and the Commission at 4.9%, still well above the NBS estimate.
Inflation forecasts are closer. The NBS expects average inflation of 3.2% in 2026 and around 4.3% in 2027. The IMF projects 3.6% and 4.4%. Consensus Economics is at roughly 3.9% and 3.8%, while the European Commission projects 4.1% and 3.9%.
The NBS’s lower 2026 number is already being validated partly by the surprisingly weak food-price data. July inflation fell to 1.9%, well below expectations, as agricultural supply pushed food prices sharply lower.
The more important disagreement concerns 2027. The NBS’s combination of 4.5% growth and inflation slightly above 4% implies a strong economy that remains within the bank’s target band. External forecasters generally see somewhat slower growth, suggesting more scepticism about the magnitude of the Expo and investment multiplier.
There are reasons for caution. Serbia’s key trading partners remain weak. Euro-area growth is projected at around 0.8-0.9% in 2026 and 1.2% in 2027 in the external assumptions used by the NBS. A renewed Middle East energy shock would reduce domestic growth materially. Infrastructure projects will also increase imports, offsetting part of the domestic demand contribution.
The central bank’s own forecast record nevertheless provides some support for its optimism. In most quarters between 2021 and 2024, actual Serbian GDP growth exceeded the NBS’s one-quarter-ahead projections. The bank describes its approach during that period as conservative. In early 2026, growth has again surprised on the upside, particularly in Q2.
This does not mean the NBS forecast should automatically be preferred. Central banks, finance ministries and international institutions use different models, assumptions and data cut-off dates. But the divergence itself tells investors where the macro debate is concentrated.
The NBS is effectively betting that Serbia’s recent export-capacity expansion is structural, that agriculture will recover strongly, that domestic consumption remains robust, and that the Expo-era capital programme will be executed fast enough to raise investment and services activity without creating destabilising external imbalances.
The IMF and European Commission are placing more weight on energy costs, weak European demand and the import intensity of infrastructure spending.
By 2027, the difference between those views becomes economically substantial. 4.5% growth with a 3% current-account deficit would represent a notably stronger macro configuration than 4.0% growth with a 4.5% deficit. The first half of 2026 has moved the evidence in the NBS’s direction; the infrastructure and export performance over the next year will determine whether that optimism survives the peak of the investment cycle.
