Activity on Serbia’s principal commodity trading platform, the Produktna berza in Novi Sad, slowed markedly in mid-January 2026, with participants reporting a significant drop in both volume and dynamism over the latest trading week. Market participants cite oscillating price expectations, uneven supply, and a persistent mismatch between what sellers are asking and what buyers are willing to pay as key drivers of the reduced throughput on the exchange.
According to the weekly report from the exchange, the total traded volume was 1,621 tonnes of agricultural and commodity products, with a financial turnover of RSD 45,738,796 (approximately €390,000), marking a clear decline from previous weeks.
Market conditions: Supply–demand mismatch and price oscillations
Traders on the corn market, traditionally the most liquid segment of the Produktna berza, concluded contracts in a tight price band of RSD 21.00–21.50 per kilogram (excluding VAT), with a volume-weighted average price of RSD 21.06/kg. This represented a modest increase of about 2.6 % compared to the previous reporting period, despite the overall market’s reduced activity.
One of the central themes of the week was the pronounced volatility in supply offers, particularly for corn. Sellers frequently revised their posted quantities and price expectations, while buyers remained cautious, sticking to narrower price ranges. This resulted in a slower matching process and fewer concluded trades.
wheat and soy markets: Divergent dynamics
On the wheat front, trading activity early in the week showed stronger demand relative to offer volumes, but that dynamic shifted as the week progressed. An increase in seller activity — without a corresponding rise in buyer interest — led to weaker trade execution and lower deal flow. Contracts for wheat ranged from RSD 20.00 to RSD 20.20/kg (excluding VAT), with an average price registering a small uptick of around 0.2 % compared with the prior period.
Soybean trading remained subdued throughout the week. Overall activity in that segment was limited, with few buyers willing to transact at current offer prices. Market participants reported that sellers were hesitant to bring sizable quantities forward, partly due to dissatisfaction with prevailing price levels and uncertainty about demand in the coming weeks.
Other commodities and inputs: Fertilizer trading
The weekly report also highlighted trading in agricultural inputs, such as fertilizer. Urea products continued to see contracts concluded on the exchange, with various packaging grades reflecting differing price points. Berzanski (exchange) deals for bulk urea ranged from RSD 50.38/kg to RSD 52.37/kg (excluding VAT), reflecting ongoing demand from producers preparing for spring planting, even as primary commodity volumes lagged.
Underlying causes and broader trends
Analysts attribute the contraction in trading volume at the Produktna berza to several structural and cyclical factors. One is the ongoing mismatch between seller expectations and buyer willingness, especially for grains — where producers are reluctant to discount material offered, waiting on either export demand signals or stronger domestic procurement bids. Another factor is broader agricultural market conditions. Earlier reports from the same exchange’s weekly series have shown that when supply outpaces buyer interest — as has been observed intermittently in recent quarters — turnover tends to shrink and price discovery becomes less efficient.
Sluggish commodity trading is not unique to the Serbian market. Similar patterns — with lower volumes and softening price trends — have been observed on other European agricultural exchanges in periods where supply outstrips immediate demand and when global price volatility prompts participants to delay commercial decisions. This can, in turn, impact both farm-level cash flow and short-term supply chain planning.
Implications for Serbian agriculture and commodity pricing
A prolonged period of weak throughput on the Produktna berza could have ramifications beyond the exchange itself. As Serbia’s primary centralized venue for price discovery and contract formation in cereals, oilseeds and other primary agricultural commodities, the exchange plays a pivotal role in signaling market conditions to producers, processors, traders, and exporters alike. Persistent low turnover can lead to wider bid–ask spreads, increase reliance on bilateral or over-the-counter negotiations, and dampen short-term hedging activity.
For farmers, this environment can lead to uncertainty in harvest pricing and revenue forecasts. For downstream processors, it may compress margins if buyers face difficulty securing reliable forward contracts. And for the broader agricultural supply chain, reduced exchange activity may delay investment decisions or prompt alternative contracting mechanisms outside the formal commodity market.
While the recent weekly figures point to softer trading conditions, market participants will be watching closely for shifts as seasonal planting and harvest cycles evolve. Stronger export demand, particularly for grains and pulses, or more competitive buyer bids from feed producers and processors could help restore volume. Conversely, continued hesitation from either side of the market could prolong the downturn in exchange activity.
In the near term, the Produktna berza’s report for the week ending January 16, 2026 highlights the delicate balance between supply offerings and demand appetite in Serbia’s agricultural commodity markets, and the way that mismatch directly affects trading volume and price formation.
