Serbian economist Dragan Đuričin stated that the 2008 sale of the majority stake in Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS) was significantly undervalued. According to a Deloitte valuation commissioned by the Serbian government at the time, 100% of NIS—excluding mineral resources—was worth €2.2 billion using the income method. However, 50% plus one share, the controlling stake, was sold for approximately €420 million.
Đuričin noted that the sale did not involve meetings between the seller’s and buyer’s valuators, and promised investments, including the South Stream gas pipeline, were not realized. He emphasized that Russian investors exploited Serbia’s mineral wealth at low royalties, generating substantial profits, including a net gain of €1 billion in one year, of which the state’s 30% share brought €300 million to the budget.
The state’s ownership share was further diluted to 30% after free shares were distributed to citizens, reducing potential revenue and control. Đuričin added that prior to privatization, NIS was poorly managed under political influence and generated minimal profits. Russian management increased efficiency and revenue through resource exploitation and technological innovation.
He also suggested that the sale may have been influenced by geopolitical considerations, with limited Western interest at the time and a “silent agreement” to allow Russian investors control in the region. Finally, he warned that current U.S. sanctions on NIS aim to limit funding for the war in Ukraine, and Serbia must balance compliance with protecting its strategic energy partnerships and investor reputation.
