Wheat dominated trading on the Novi Sad Commodity Exchange during the week of 13–17 July 2026, accounting for 85 per cent of total turnover as buyers concentrated on new-crop availability, port delivery and storage terms. Corn prices strengthened, but activity remained subdued, while soybeans held their previous level and feed barley continued to recover from the pressure surrounding the new harvest.
All dinar prices have been converted at the National Bank of Serbia’s official middle exchange rate of €1 = RSD117.3751 for 17 July 2026. Commodity prices are presented in euros per tonne, excluding VAT unless stated otherwise.
Wheat contracts were concluded at €164.43–€170.39 per tonne, with a volume-weighted average of €166.39 per tonne. Including VAT, the weighted price was approximately €183 per tonne.
The average was slightly below the previous week’s €167.41 per tonne, when wheat changed hands at €166.13–€168.69 per tonne. The modest weekly decline shows that the surge in wheat’s share of exchange turnover did not translate into stronger pricing. It was primarily a reflection of wheat’s greater liquidity relative to the other commodities traded in Novi Sad.
That distinction is important. Wheat’s share of turnover rose from 71 per cent in the previous week to 85 per cent, but the weighted price slipped by around 0.6 per cent. The market therefore remains active without becoming distinctly bullish. Buyers are present, yet they retain sufficient leverage to resist higher asking prices.
Interest was particularly visible for wheat delivered on a CPT port basis, under which the seller bears the transport cost to the agreed port destination. However, differences between buyers’ bids and sellers’ expectations prevented contracts from being completed on that basis.
The failed port-delivery negotiations reveal that the most important price for Serbian exporters is no longer simply the ex-warehouse value of the grain. Commercial viability also depends on inland transport, handling, terminal availability, storage and the price that can ultimately be achieved through the Danube and Black Sea export chain.
A relatively narrow difference of several euros per tonne can decide whether grain moves toward export terminals or remains in domestic storage. At a wheat price of about €166 per tonne, logistics costs consume a meaningful portion of the final margin, particularly for producers and traders located farther from the main Danube loading points.
Buyers also sought wheat accompanied by free storage until the end of September or October. Contracts incorporating this arrangement were concluded at €168.69–€170.39 per tonne.
The premium over the overall weighted wheat price partly reflects the economic value of deferred collection. Free storage gives buyers greater control over the timing of physical delivery, allowing them to coordinate port slots, vessels, downstream sales and working-capital requirements. For sellers, however, the arrangement means retaining the grain, carrying storage risk and postponing the release of warehouse capacity during the post-harvest period.
The market is therefore beginning to price wheat not only according to protein content and location, but also according to the flexibility embedded in the contract. A tonne available immediately at an inland warehouse is not economically identical to a tonne that can remain stored without charge until autumn or be delivered to an export terminal at the seller’s expense.
The current weighted wheat price of €166.39 per tonne remains well below the levels recorded before the new harvest began. At the start of June, the weighted price for bread wheat had stood at approximately €183 per tonne, while old-crop wheat in mid-June traded at roughly €177–€183 per tonne, depending on quality. The July market has absorbed the arrival of the new crop through a marked seasonal correction.
That decline is favourable for mills, animal-feed producers and exporters seeking competitively priced Serbian grain, but it narrows margins for farmers whose production costs remain elevated. Fertiliser, fuel, machinery, land rent, financing and storage expenses leave limited room for producers to accept lower prices, particularly where yields or quality have fallen below initial expectations.
Corn traded at €172.10–€174.65 per tonne, excluding VAT. The weighted price reached €173.21 per tonne, equivalent to approximately €190.59 per tonne including VAT.
The weighted corn price increased by 1.56 per cent from the previous week’s €170.56 per tonne, yet the rise occurred in a market with reduced participation from both buyers and sellers. Corn contracts covered grain without an aflatoxin analysis, a detail that can affect both the buyer pool and the final commercial value.
The combination of stronger prices and limited turnover does not yet establish a broad upward trend. It instead suggests that the lower volumes available for immediate trading allowed concluded contracts to clear at slightly higher levels. A more reliable price signal would require stronger demand and a larger number of transactions across different quality specifications and delivery locations.
Corn’s weighted price was approximately €6.82 per tonne above wheat, an unusual relationship for buyers accustomed to evaluating the two grains as competing feed inputs. The premium may encourage feed manufacturers to increase the wheat component of formulations where nutritional specifications permit, particularly for lower-quality wheat that does not command a milling premium.
For exporters, the corn price must also absorb the cost of quality testing. Aflatoxin certification can be essential for access to certain buyers and destinations. Grain sold without analysis may carry a lower documentary burden at the point of sale, but it also transfers quality uncertainty further along the commercial chain.
Soybean trading remained limited. Contracts were concluded at €451.54 per tonne, excluding VAT and subject to the applicable quality calculation. The VAT-inclusive equivalent was approximately €496.70 per tonne.
The price was unchanged from the previous week, indicating that the market has reached a temporary balance but not necessarily deep liquidity. Stable pricing combined with weak turnover often means that neither buyers nor sellers see sufficient reason to alter their position. Producers may be unwilling to sell at lower levels, while processors and traders appear reluctant to raise bids without a stronger demand signal.
At more than €451 per tonne, soybeans remain substantially more valuable than cereals on a unit basis, but quality adjustments have a greater effect on the final settlement. Protein, moisture, impurities and other contractual parameters can produce a meaningful difference between the headline exchange price and the amount ultimately paid for delivered material.
Feed barley continued its upward movement. Contracts were concluded at €150.80–€151.65 per tonne, with a weighted price of €151.05 per tonne. Including VAT, the equivalent weighted value was approximately €166.13 per tonne.
The weighted price increased by 1.90 per cent from the previous comparable level. Demand was stronger than the available supply, but the market remained constrained by the difference between sellers’ asking prices and buyers’ bids.
Barley is trading at a discount of approximately €15.34 per tonne to wheat and €22.16 per tonne to corn. That gap supports its competitiveness as a feed ingredient, although actual substitution depends on quality, hectolitre weight, moisture and the nutritional requirements of the end user.
The barley market has undergone a substantial seasonal adjustment. Old-crop material traded near €170 per tonne in early June, while the first significant volumes from the new harvest were concluded closer to €151 per tonne. The reduction reflects the arrival of new supply and the quality differentiation associated with the harvest.
Rapeseed was offered at €475–€490 per tonne, excluding VAT. Buyers initially indicated interest at €475 per tonne on a CPT basis, matching the lower end of the offered range. Demand then disappeared, and no contracts were concluded.
The absence of trading despite an apparent initial meeting point at €475 per tonne suggests that price alone was not sufficient to close the transaction. Delivery location, quality specifications, timing, payment conditions or the quantity available may have prevented agreement.
Rapeseed prices have firmed from the €470–€475 per tonne offer range seen during the preceding week, but the increase remains unconfirmed by completed contracts. A quoted offer establishes a seller’s expectation; it does not create a reliable market benchmark until a buyer accepts it.
The exchange also recorded a transaction in NPK 10:26:26 compound fertiliser, supplied in 600-kilogram packaging, at a reported contract price of €635 per tonne, excluding VAT. A direct conversion of the quoted dinar value at the official daily middle rate produces approximately €636.85 per tonne, with the small difference attributable to the commercial exchange-rate basis used in the original contract quotation.
The fertiliser price is equivalent to almost 3.8 tonnes of wheat at the week’s weighted exchange price. This relationship illustrates the pressure on farm economics: while grain values have fallen during the harvest period, a major production input remains expensive in euro terms.
At the weighted exchange prices, the gross value of one tonne of wheat and one tonne of corn combined is approximately €339.60, little more than half the cost of one tonne of NPK fertiliser. The comparison is not a calculation of farm profitability, since fertiliser application rates are only a fraction of a tonne per hectare, but it captures the imbalance between current crop values and the cost base carried into the production cycle.
The week’s trading leaves Serbia’s grain market divided between active wheat demand and limited liquidity elsewhere. Wheat has become the principal channel through which buyers are securing new-crop supply, yet its higher share of turnover has not prevented a further price correction. Corn has moved in the opposite direction, recording a modest price increase without the trading depth needed to confirm a sustained recovery.
The decisive negotiations are increasingly centred on delivery terms, storage and access to export logistics. Wheat available with free storage until autumn attracted a premium, while interest in port-delivered grain failed to produce contracts because the bid-offer spread remained unresolved. Those conditions place logistics and working-capital capacity alongside crop quality as the central determinants of value in Serbia’s post-harvest grain market.
