The global economy is in a complex crisis, the pandemic has deepened further, and when asked where Serbia is and what it should do, professor of the Faculty of Economics Dragan Djuricin answers that we have a chance if we understand the new world trends.
And that, says Professor Djuricin for Tanjug, means, above all, Industry 4.0, “green transformation” and new types of financing based on cryptocurrencies.
The good news is that the Law on Digital Property is in the parliamentary procedure, which “connects” Serbia to world trends.
The professor points out that the medical crisis due to Covid 19 only deepened the structural imbalances of the previous economic crisis, so the new “rocking of the ground” only increased the crack on a global level.
So now, in addition to various trade, technological, foreign exchange and other wars on the world economic scene, we also have a war on vaccines, since one group of countries will not accept the vaccines of another group.
“In that context, the Covid crisis happened.”
Neoliberal capitalism has existed for about 40 years, Djuricin reminds and adds that our country was also under the pressure of that concept, which implies deregulation and total privatization.
However, that concept, he says, led to the limits of sustainability and the crisis of 2008 occurred, after which unconventional measures followed, the most unconventional of which was the printing of money or the so-called quantitative relief.
Printing money creates a problem between created and realized value. Value is created on the market of goods and services, and it is realized on the financial market, and if too much value is emitted on the financial market, the speculative bubble bursts, which led to the crisis of 2008, Djuricin reminds and adds that from then until the end of 2019 by some estimates about 40 minor crises.
However, in the current conditions, China is progressing, and liberal economies have a problem of sustainability, states Djuricin.
He adds that the measures to solve the medical crisis only widen the gap in the economic crisis, because if people close, the economy does not work, and if it does, people are exposed to the virus and medical costs increase.
So, whatever you do is wrong, Tanjug’s interlocutor notes.
Djuricin, as a good connoisseur of the world economy, points out that it is very important in this situation not to forget about solving long-term problems, which are already being worked on in the world today, and that is sustainable economic development, which primarily refers to green transformation and transition to a circular economy, which means an approach that integrates the economy and the waste management system.
He notes that the logical question is for every country, including Serbia, how to provide financing for expensive environmental projects, as well as for new industrialization based on new technologies, ie Industry 4.0 and digitalization.
In that sense, it is very important that Serbia will get the Law on Digital Property, which, he points out, is a piece in the mosaic of the new vision of the development of our country.
He states that cryptocurrencies are a reality today, although they were initially disputed, but now they have been given the “right of citizenship”, considering that the governors of the central banks of the largest countries talk about them in their expositions.
Also, the largest investment banks around the world accept them as part of their structural portfolio, in addition to government bonds, shares of technology companies, “hybrid papers”, lately – even those based on gold.
Djuricin reminds that bitcoin was initially priced at 2,000 dollars, while now it has reached 23,000 dollars, and states that some estimate that its ceiling will be as high as 400,000 dollars.
It is about virtual money, which, through certain technologies of the fourth industrial revolution, can finance green projects, the so-called “new green deal”.
Therefore, Djuricin points out, a country that is considering financing the transformation of its economy in terms of new industrialization must also take into account the financing model that is already recognized in the EU and the world.
This is a great benefit for Serbia because, as he says, it means that the green transformation will be able to be financed from that type of “printed” and “anticipatory” money.
He notes that money is in any case a matter of social convention and that there is no limit in that sense.
It is a conditional show, aimed at transformation. That digital money can also be used to improve medical systems and more. Of course, with a fine balance between real and virtual economy, real and virtual sources of financing. That is a great challenge of the future, Djuricin emphasizes.
He reminds that other new forms of financing are available, such as green loans, green bonds, that there is new regulation, so central banks privilege banks that finance projects for the affirmation of the circular economy and zero or low emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases.
Djuricin notes that Serbia has an environmental problem, which is inherited, but that if we want to be part of Europe, we must start solving it as soon as possible.
So, the new industrialization, which he, as an economist, advocates, and was recently mentioned by the top of the state as one of the goals in the coming period, for Serbia means primarily structuring the existing production in the direction of new environmentally friendly production, which is based on the principle of circular economy, he said.
He says that it has been shown that economies in which the contribution of the real economy to the formation of GDP is higher have a much greater possibility of amortizing shocks.
Thus, in China, the contribution of industry to the formation of GDP is higher than 40 percent, in the USA 14 percent, while in some European countries it is between 14 and 20 percent, and the highest percentage is in Germany.
In other words, the economies that developed the model of neoliberal capitalism are based on the dominance of the financial sector in creating GDP and the huge absorption of created value, which is much more important than the participation of that sector in GDP formation, the professor explains.
So, the question of the new industry is the question of the application of Industry 4.0 technology, which are based on the so-called universal connectivity, such as artificial intelligence, robotics and others, which are highly efficient technologies and low cost.
That is why every national economy that wants to keep its position and eventually prosper must be included in that track, Djuricin said, Dnevnik reports.
