In terms of international actors they trust, most Serbian citizens support Russia, followed by China and the United Arab Emirates, while NATO is viewed most negatively, according to a study by the Center for International Private Entrepreneurship (CIPE) in Washington.
The research on the perception of international relations among the population of Serbia, which was conducted in July 2020, also took into account how citizens express their opinion on the relationship between the level of democracy and the quality of life. 55% of Serbian citizens believe that the level of democracy and quality of life go hand in hand, while 36% of them believe that quality of life is more important than democracy.
It is unusual that, while the majority still values democracy as a condition for a good life, countries that are often criticized for the absence of democracy – Russia, China, UAE – are certainly not reflected in the reflection of democratic principles of organization.
Igor Novakovic, director of research at the Center for International and Security Affairs (ISAC Fund), and Vuk Vuksanovic, PhD student in international politics at the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), analyzed for Talas why the citizens of Serbia are starting to see China as the main source of support for our country and what has changed from 2018 until today.
The Emirates recorded the largest increase in trust
As many as 62% of Serbian citizens have a positive attitude towards Russia, 57% towards China, while 33% of respondents give positive assessments to the Emirates. Here, the UAE recorded the highest growth compared to 2018, when the same research was conducted, and pushed the European Union from the third place.
NATO is still among the most hated international actors in the minds of Serbian citizens, with 79% of respondents giving negative assessments to the Alliance. The United States did not fare any better with 53% of negative assessments, but also the European Union, which is not supported by 39% of the population of our country.
The influence of government narratives in Serbia
Asked about which countries provide the greatest institutional support to Serbia – the citizens of Serbia again put Russia in the first place. Immediately behind it are China and then the European Union.
Such data reflect the deep-rooted attitudes of Serbian citizens towards traditional “allies” and publicly declared “brotherly states”. Such views are primarily the product of campaigns and messages sent by government officials. Considering that the research was done in July 2020, after the beginning of the pandemic in which the President marked China as the source of the greatest help, it is not surprising that the support of citizens towards China has increased significantly compared to 2018 when 12% citizens viewed this country as “the biggest support for Serbia”, while in 2020 that percentage jumps more than twice – to as much as 26%.
Although Russia is seen among the population of Serbia as a traditional ally, and this year the authorities gave it popularity by presenting it as a possible supplier of the vaccine against the corona virus, the perception of support coming from Russia is declining. While in 2018, the citizens of Serbia, with 50% of the votes of the respondents, saw Russia as number one in terms of the support it provides us, in the same survey this year, that number dropped to 42%.
Igor Novaković, political scientist and research director of the ISAC fund, explains for Talas that such data are the result of the attitude of the authorities in Serbia towards the issue of international cooperation.
– Since 2016, it seems that the representatives of Serbia are constantly favoring the partnership with China. Undoubtedly, China is an important partner, but certainly not at a level that could be compared to the EU. Also, there is a constant premise in the public discourse that investments come to China primarily from Serbia, while most of them are loans. I am not sure that the citizens of Serbia understand that most of the infrastructure projects that are financed from Chinese loans and that were performed by Chinese companies (mostly), will have to be repaid, Novakovic stated for Talas.
He adds that the perception of China among the citizens of Serbia was certainly influenced by the statements of Serbian officials during the pandemic, through which the aid coming from China was absolutely favored.
– On the other hand, to this day, we have not received information on how much aid came from China, and what Serbia actually paid for. But overall, there is a process of positively representing China in public discourse, without questioning and debating what challenges that partnership can bring, he said.
Russia has been appearing in public discourse much less lately, Novakovic points out.
– Moreover, the spy affair during the last year, negative reporting by tabloids and some TV stations during the July protests (for which the Russian “deep state” is accused), and visibly less monitoring of aid actions provided by Russia during the pandemic (compared to China) they certainly influenced the decline, he said.
Are the biggest investments from the Emirates?
Vuk Vuksanović, a doctoral student in international politics at the LSE, also mentions that the jump in China’s popularity among the citizens of Serbia occurred during the coronavirus pandemic.
– The jump in popularity of China is a product of the pro-Chinese narrative and actions of the ruling elite in Belgrade. This came to the fore during the pandemic, when the government marked China as the country from which the most aid came. Russian aid has not taken on such a dimension and a slight decline can be seen, and the Washington agreement, which brought us closer to the United States, has also contributed to that. However, Russia is still highly ranked because the official policy of Belgrade for the last 12 years has been promoting a strong Russian narrative, and it is difficult to change that picture, Vuksanovic points out.
He also emphasized that the rating of the UAE jumped the most among the citizens of Serbia as a result of economic projects with that country that our authorities are promoting. He reminds that many researches and valid data, despite the popular opinion that exists among the citizens, show that it is the European Union that gives us the most help.
– The UAE is the fourth largest investor in terms of direct investments, which is not a negligible contribution. However, the European Union has an absolute advantage with 72% of foreign direct investment, but the citizens obviously do not see it enough. It is all a question of the narrative that the ruling elite places, Vuksanovic concluded.
They see Europe as a good place to export
However, when it comes to who gives the most financial aid to Serbia, the perception of citizens is somewhat different and reflects a more realistic picture.
The European Union was first seen as a source of financial support for Serbia, which confirms the opinion of 27% of Serbian citizens. In the second place, the respondents see China, with 25% of answers, while the third financier of Serbia, according to the perception of the respondents, is Russia with 14% of votes.
Unlike most other issues on which citizens have an opinion, as many as 13% of them stated here that they “do not know” which state gives Serbia the most money.
Whether European integration will bring a better quality of life to Serbia and its citizens was one of the questions in the research. Asked to put their views on the EU aside, although this is often impossible, the citizens mostly answered that the EU absolutely does not mean a better life for the people of Serbia. Here, however, the percentage was fairly evenly distributed from those who absolutely see the EU as a place for a better standard to those who think that membership would not bring anything good to Serbia.
On the other hand, significantly more citizens, as many as 39%, see the EU as the best partner and market for exports, and they believe that Serbia should continue to be oriented towards economic cooperation with the Union.
While according to the perception of citizens, China (62%), Russia (53%) and the European Union (49%) have the greatest economic influence on Serbia, on the other hand, Russia (65%) and the European Union (63%) and the United States (50%) seem to have the greatest political influence, Talas reports.
