Although the level of gross domestic production sometimes seems to reduce the gap with less developed countries of the European Union, when you look at other parameters such as wages, unemployment or emigration rates, things become more devastating.
The economic structure of the poor
Since the financial crisis in 2008, Croatia has been having a hard time recovering, slower than any European country. Their GDP fell by 7.1 percent, then grew below one percent on average per year, so that only in 2018 did they return to where they were ten years earlier. Now, the pandemic and the global collapse of tourism have hit them hard again, so last year the drop in GDP was 8.8 percent.
In contrast, the structure of the Serbian economy is such that the share of basic activities, such as agriculture, production of hygiene products, textiles, footwear, rubber, cement or stone, is extremely large. These branches are the most resistant to all kinds of shocks, but they are low-accumulative and lead to a very slow development of society. However, the impact of the pandemic was relatively easy and Serbia recorded a drop in GDP of only one percent.
Now, the total GDP of Serbia is around 52 billion dollars, and if it grows by six percent, as planned, it will reach 55 billion, one more than the total neighbor’s GDP. As our neighbor is too oriented towards tourism, it is certain that he will have a weak economic year as well.
But, the number of citizens of Croatia is two and a half million less than the number of inhabitants of Serbia. Therefore, the GDP per capita in Serbia is 7,400, in Croatia 13,600 dollars. So, we are still far from one of the poorer countries in the European Union.
Cheap oil, expensive copper
Finance Minister Sinisa Mali tried to strengthen the president’s argument about successfully dealing with the Serbian economy with global difficulties, so he pointed out a lesser-known detail that the foreign trade deficit last year was 4.78 billion euros, 1.1 billion less than the previous year. This indicator has been considered the weakest point of the Serbian economy for years, and the Minister hurried to brag that the current policy has results in solving the biggest problem.
However, a slightly deeper analysis of foreign policy exchange shows us that last year Serbia noticed a noticeable decline in trade with the world. Thus, the traditional disintegration of Serbia into the world economy becomes even more pronounced.
When you look at the volume of trade in tons, you can see that the ratio of exported and imported goods is almost the same as the year before. The fall in the deficit is a consequence of the enormous fall in the price of the oil we import, and to a lesser extent in the rise in the prices of food and metals, primarily copper, our export assets. So, the 1.1 billion smaller deficit is primarily a consequence of the movement of stock market prices, and not the improved productivity of the Serbian economy.
Modest salaries
GDP is just one of the parameters that measure the success of a country’s economy. By observing employment, wages, emigration, a more complete and precise picture of the economic picture of society was obtained. It is not worse to look at indicators that are not strictly economic.
Thus, the average salary in Croatia is around 1,180 dollars, well above the Serbian 740. Unemployment in our country is 10.6, compared to 6.3 percent in Croatia. As emigration is a traditional feature of our neighbors, it is the only indicator by which we are almost equal. Nearly 14 percent of Serbian citizens, or 12.2 percent of Croatians born in the homeland, found work in exile.
Dozens and tens of generations of the local population from the time of socialist Yugoslavia have the image of Romania as an example of poverty. The inhabitants of this country have been fleeing to the West through our region for decades. Our earnings were up to four, five times higher than the Romanian ones.
Target selection
Today the situation is completely different. The average GDP per capita in Romania is 18,000 dollars, the salaries of our neighbors have reached 1,050 dollars, and the unemployment rate is only 3.3 percent. Although we have heard and read a lot during the three decades of transition about the departure of young Romanians to the Romanian states (Italy and France), only 5.6 percent of those born in and under the Carpathians ended up in the diaspora.
Many things, depending on the approach and angle of observation, can be viewed differently. Especially when the data is selectively selected, those who are in favor count, those who would not really confirm a certain position are left out, BiF reports.
