The corona virus pandemic (COVID-19) has significantly changed the way people live, communicate and work. After the pandemic in the Republic of Serbia and the declaration of a state of emergency, crisis headquarters were formed in the Electric Network of Serbia, measures were taken and plans were made for the smooth functioning of the power system and for the smooth performance of other tasks within the company’s competence. In circumstances that are anything but regular, the basic task was to ensure the stability of the transmission system and maintain the reliability of electricity supply to all users of the transmission system.
Modern societies are completely dependent on electricity, and it is crucial to perform the activities of economic entities and to meet the needs of the population to ensure a secure supply of electricity at all times. Due to the spread of the pandemic in the Republic of Serbia, on March 15, the Government of the Republic of Serbia declared a state of emergency on the entire territory of the country, which lasted until May 6. By declaring a state of emergency and declaring a period of ban on leaving the population, millions of people found themselves in quarantine in their homes, many companies had to change and reduce their production cycle, many employees started working from home and students to follow distance learning. All this deviated from the established ways of behavior, movement and work of people, which also affected the electric power system of Serbia.
As these changes in the movement, work and behavior of people during the state of emergency can be easily identified through changes in electricity consumption trends, the aim of this paper is to present the consequences of the state of emergency due to the COVID-19 pandemic on the electricity consumption trend of customers connected to transmission system. The changes in customer consumption that followed as a result of the introduction of the state of emergency in 2020 are compared with the average consumption from previous periods. The structure of produced electricity depending on the type of production facilities is also shown, as well as the changes in the trend of exchanged electricity with neighboring transmission systems in 2020.
The COVID-19 virus pandemic and the measures taken to control it in Serbia have had an impact on the Serbian power system. Total electricity consumption during the state of emergency decreased by 3% compared to the average consumption in the same period 2015-2019. This decline is a consequence of both the measures declared to combat the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of atypical weather conditions that occurred during 2020. Considering that in Serbia the share of industrial customers in the total electricity consumption is relatively lower and that the majority of electricity consumption is realized by household customers, the total decrease in electricity consumption is not as large as it might be expected at first glance, especially not as much as in other, highly developed countries. However, certain consequences and trends can be seen.
Analyzing the curve of total electricity consumption in the transmission system in 2020 in relation to the average consumption in the period 2015-2019, it is noticed that before the state of emergency (15.3.2020) the consumption curve for 2020 followed the consumption trend in the period 2015-2019. From the moment of declaring a state of emergency, the consumption curve for 2020 begins to deviate significantly in relation to the average consumption.
In the first twenty days of the state of emergency, the consumption curve was 350 MW higher than the average for the same period in 2015-2019, primarily due to the cold period with lower temperatures than the average at this time of year. After that period, from 5.4.2020 begins a period in which there is an almost constant decline in consumption relative to the average, on average about 300 MW with individual peaks and 700 MW. As during this period there was a progression of virus contamination, tightening of quarantine measures and a ban on going out, it is clear that this decline in consumption is largely due to reduced activities of economic entities and the cessation of transport, service and trade activities. At the same time, there was a period of unusually warm weather, so that it also partly contributed to this drop in consumption. It is indicative that this trend of declining consumption continued even after the lifting of the state of emergency, since the trend of returning employees to work was gradual, and that the slow trend of increasing economic activity in Serbia is generally noticeable, while viruses are still in circulation.
The percentage deviation of the total consumption supplied from the transmission system during the state of emergency in 2020 in relation to the average from the previous five years can be seen even better in the following diagram. From 5.4.2020, a period begins in which a constant trend of declining consumption in relation to the average was recorded, which ranged from 2% to 20% in relation to the average consumption.
If we analyze the trend of exchanged electricity with neighboring transmission systems, it can be seen that on the side of electricity input from neighboring systems in 2020 there was a minimal decrease of only 0.33% compared to the average of 2016-19, while on the side output of electricity from the transmission system of Serbia to neighboring systems in 2020 there was a significant decline of 18.8% compared to the average of 2016-19.
The reduction of electricity consumption in the Republic of Serbia due to the COVID-19 virus pandemic, as well as the decline in demand for electricity in neighboring electricity markets, had direct consequences on the reduction of electricity production in the current part of 2020.
The production of electricity from thermal power plants, hydropower plants and renewable energy sources in 2020 was about 7.7% lower compared to the average for the same period in 2017-2019. Only at the very beginning of the state of emergency, production in 2020 was higher than average, due to increased consumption in the system due to low temperatures and snow at that time.
If we analyze the structure of electricity produced in 2020, the share of electricity produced from thermal power plants is 72%, from hydropower plants 25% and from renewable energy sources about 3%. While the data on the production of electricity from renewable sources is not incomparable with those from previous years due to the recent start of operation of these power plants, the production of electricity from hydropower in 2020 was significantly lower than the average production for this time of year. in previous years, this share was around 32%. The reason for that was the drier period with significantly less precipitation during the spring of this year, and the reduction of watercourses and accumulations necessary for the operation of hydroelectric power plants.
Traditionally, during the winter period in Serbia there is a deficit in production capacity, and there is a trend of taking over electricity from neighboring systems to meet electricity consumption. In other periods of the year, depending on the availability of generation units, the level of electricity consumption in Serbia and the demand for it in other markets, electricity is predominantly supplied from the transmission system of Serbia. However, during the spring of 2020, the supply of electricity to neighboring systems decreased by almost 19% compared to the average in previous years, primarily due to the reduction of electricity needs in other markets due to the impact of the COVID-19 virus pandemic.
Consumption oscillations in 2020 in relation to the average consumption from previous periods were analyzed and presented by industry. The duration of the state of emergency was especially analyzed and the results are characteristic. Some industries completely stopped their production during the state of emergency, most of the economy reduced its consumption to current needs and possibilities, while there were also those industries that due to technology and nature of work were not allowed to make any reductions in consumption. The following charts show the trends of customer consumption by industry in 2020 compared to the average over the past three years.
Transport
During the state of emergency, in the field of transport, there is a drop in electricity consumption of about 40%.
At the beginning of this period, there is an extreme reduction in the timetable of intercity and city bus and rail public transport lines. Finally, on March 20, all types of public transport will be abolished. The recovery trend of this consumption is slow.
Auto industry
Electricity consumption in the automotive industry fell by about 70% during the state of emergency.
The reasons were: the interruption in production due to the fall in demand for cars during the pandemic, as well as the delay in delivery in the supply chain, and primarily due to the interruption of the delivery of parts produced in China.
Wood processing industry
The wood processing industry shut down its production during the state of emergency and worked at a technical minimum.
This can also be seen from the diagram of electricity consumption. After the state of emergency, this consumption quickly returned to its regular levels.
Chemical industry
Due to the increased need for its products during the state of emergency and due to complex and risky technological processes that do not suffer interruptions, the chemical industry worked without interruption during the state of emergency.
It is noticeable that this industry also had slightly higher consumption than usual during the state of emergency.
Construction material industry
The construction material industry did not significantly reduce its production during the state of emergency.
This industry has managed to achieve continuous production – the operation of furnaces, mills and plants for the preparation of raw materials, because throughout the crisis there was a demand for its products, due to the demands of the dynamic construction sector.
Metal industry
There was no production downtime during the state of emergency in the metal industry either.
Some companies from this branch have provided great assistance to the Government of Serbia by donating funds to fight the pandemic.
Mining
During the state of emergency, the mining industry had a significant increase in coal production. Thus, there was an increase in electricity consumption of this branch, in order to meet energy needs and reduce import dependence.
Thermal energy production
The heat production industry did not have a drop in electricity consumption during the state of emergency, but continued to supply consumers with heat normally.
Variations in the consumption of this industry are determined primarily by climatic factors – the outside air temperature.
Water treatment
The water processing industry continued with regular work during the state of emergency, which was expected.
Consumption was higher than the average for this time of year starting from 5.4.2020 when there were the most pronounced restrictions on going out, and water consumption in households was higher than usual, as well as due to the onset of very warm weather, with temperatures above average for this time of year.
Conclusion
Although Serbia is not a highly developed country, with a high share of industry in total electricity consumption, the impact of the pandemic and the introduction of a state of emergency with a ban on the population during certain periods was visible and contributed to the decline in electricity consumption energy in Serbia of about 3% during the state of emergency. The weather conditions also had an impact, since the temperatures were unusual, from those below zero with snow, to almost summer, from 30 degrees. Due to poorer hydrology, the flows were close to historical lows. All this has influenced the consequences of the introduction of the state of emergency not to be as noticeable in terms of total consumption, as is the case in some other countries. In the category of households, consumption increased during the state of emergency, because people spent more time in homes and because work and classes were conducted from home. In contrast, among industrial consumers, some branches had large production delays, primarily the transport industry, the wood processing industry, and the export-oriented metal industry. Other industries did not have significant oscillations in production, and thus no electricity consumption. The reason for this is a complex and risky technological cycle that does not suffer interruptions (chemical and oil industry) or the need for regular supply of the market (water processing industry and construction material industry). During the state of emergency, a significant drop in the delivered electricity was recorded into neighboring systems, primarily due to falling demand. The exchange with the neighboring systems was also influenced by the activities on ensuring the energy security of the country, by preserving the reserves of coal and water in the reservoirs, taking into account that the end of the crisis is not yet in sight, Energija Balkana reports.
