The rapid recovery of the industry will contribute to better-than-expected economic growth in Serbia in the third quarter, economist Ivan Nikolic said today.
He expressed the expectation that international financial institutions will improve the projections of our annual economic growth, which still hold at minus about three percent.
Nikolic states that international financial institutions are conservative and that they always start from the “worst possible outcome”, but also that this outcome is planned for Serbia, he says, relatively better than other countries.
“Economic growth will certainly be better in the third quarter, that’s for sure. If we look by sectors, the carrier will certainly be industry, where growth of more than three percent is expected year-on-year, and that will probably be better from the first quarter,” Nikolic said.
He adds that the situation in agriculture is better than last year and points out that growth in that sector is expected of around four percent.
“Along with industry, agriculture and retail trade, we absolutely compensate for those worse results from the service sector and probably the construction sector,” Nikolic said.
He states that it is surprising that the industry is very good and points out that it had a drastic decline only in April, but that it recovered quickly in June and August and returned to serious growth rates.
He points out that these good growth rates come from different areas, such as, according to Nikolic, furniture, food industry, pharmaceutical industry, partly chemical…
Nikolic says that if we add to the good results in industry and agriculture the support that came from the state for the economy, and which was reflected in the labor market, which gave impetus to trade, this year can, despite the coronavirus, be very favorable.
He is also convinced that the IMF will state these good results at the upcoming meetings with the Serbian authorities, and that our economic results will be a positive surprise for them.
He reminds that Serbia has not had any problems with the IMF in the last three years, and he expects that during this last visit, they will praise Serbia.
He believes that there is no serious reason for the continuation of the arrangement, if, he says, the macroeconomic parameters and structural changes that are happening in the Serbian economy are taken into account.
Nikolic pointed out that another good news for the Serbian economy is the Economic and Investment Plan for the Western Balkans, which should be presented by the European Commissioner for Enlargement, Oliver Varhelji, during the next week.
He points out that about four billion euros have been announced for the region, and that this assistance will be good for the region in this crisis period.
“European aid is on the line of this wave, primarily of institutional investors, which started with the DFC, and before that with China,” Nikolic pointed out.
He estimates that this EU plan is more important for Serbia than the American DFC, because, he points out, in previous years, the most important investments came from Europe.
Nikolic says that Serbia, in addition to investments from Western Europe, also had a lot of investments from Russia, Turkey…
He states that this positive interest in the Western Balkans would be a sign that the region “undoubtedly expects good years”.
“We will see if we will use all that in the right way, but in a way this gives absolutely positive prospects for the growth and development of Serbia in an irregular period,” Nikolic concludes, B92 reports.
