Inflation in the Eurozone is slowing down sharply, so in November the year-on-year increase in prices amounted to 2.4 percent, and the downward trajectory of inflation was also expressed in Serbia.
If the deceleration trend recorded in November and December continues, price growth in December this year could be 7.6 percent compared to the last month of 2022, Ivan Nikolić, the editor of Macroeconomic Analysis and Trends, confirmed for Biznis.rs the forecast of the author of this professional magazine.
MAT’s forecast is somewhat more optimistic even than the expectations of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS), which announced during the presentation of the November Inflation Report that it expects price growth to be around eight percent in December.
“According to our new projection, after falling to a level of around eight percent at the end of this year, interannual inflation will most likely return to the target range (in the range of 1.5 to 4.5 percent) in the middle of next year, and then continue to is slowing down, approaching the central goal value of three percent at the end of 2024,” Governor Jorgovanka Tabaković said at the time.
MAT analysts remind that consumer prices in October 2023, compared to the same month of the previous year, increased by 8.5 percent, but monthly inflation remained at the September level, thanks to the fact that the increase in the base was neutralized by the decrease in the non-base component.
“Monthly core inflation was raised from -0.1 percent in September to 0.5 percent in October 2023, and monthly non-core inflation was lowered from 0.6 percent in September to 0.1 percent in October 2023,” it says analysis of MAT.
Core inflation, by the way, includes the growth in prices of non-food products without energy, alcoholic beverages and cigarettes and the growth in prices of services, while non-core inflation includes the growth in prices of energy, food and non-alcoholic beverages as well as alcoholic beverages and cigarettes.
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