In September, Serbia’s year-on-year inflation showed a slight decline, reaching 4.2%. Monthly prices increased by just 0.1%, as reported by the National Bank of Serbia (NBS), referencing data from the Republic Statistical Office. The monthly inflation trend mirrored that of August, driven by a 1.2% rise in the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, along with adjustments in regulated prices, particularly for utility services. Conversely, oil derivative prices fell by 3.8% in September, following global oil trends, and seasonal discounts were noted in tourism package prices.
Food prices significantly contributed to monthly inflation, with unprocessed food rising by 3.2%. Notably, prices for fresh fruit and vegetables surged by 5.0% and 8.3%, respectively, exceeding expectations due to drought effects that led to reduced supply. Processed food prices saw a modest increase of 0.2%, while confectionery product prices continued to climb. Year-on-year, food prices rose by 3.8%.
Energy prices decreased by 1.7% compared to August, influenced by lower prices for oil derivatives and solid fuels. When compared to September of the previous year, energy prices fell by 0.3%.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile items, remained stable on average in September. The decrease in tourism package prices was offset by rising costs in various services, including utilities, restaurants, and rents. Year-on-year, core inflation slightly increased to 5.3%.
The NBS estimates that year-on-year inflation will continue to stay within the target range of 3.0% ± 1.5%. This trend is supported by ongoing restrictive monetary policies, lower import inflation, and stable inflation expectations.
