The latest data from the Republic Statistical Office show us the economic situation in the country during August. What do the economic trends look like and is there any good news for this year?
Recovery of the manufacturing industry
Industrial production generally recovered, with seasonally adjusted manufacturing growth of 2.4% compared to July. That is a slight monthly acceleration – in July, industrial production was 2% higher than in June. Compared to August of the previous year, production is higher by 4.2%. In fact, the level of production in the manufacturing industry in August is higher than during any month of 2018, but it is still below the level from January 2020.
After a sharp drop in April and May, the level of industrial production has finally recovered. In August, production increased in several sectors affected by the crisis, such as clothing production, the wood industry, and base metal processing. Production is also doing well in sectors that have grown despite the crisis, such as the chemical, pharmaceutical and metal industries. But some industrial sectors are still in trouble: the motor vehicle production sector (where almost the entire volume of production can be attributed to Fiat and Kragujevac) is only at the level of 65% last year, and similar bad results are recorded by the textile, leather and rubber industries.
Exports remain lower
During August, goods worth 1,302.8 million euros were exported from Serbia, which is about 55 million euros or 4% lower than in August last year. Seen from the beginning of the year, the value of exports is lower by 7.6% or even almost 880 million euros compared to the first 8 months of the previous year, while the largest decline was recorded in the manufacturing sector of 8.2%. The biggest drop in exports was recorded in EU countries.
Only 3 sectors – food and live animals, beverages and tobacco and chemical products, recorded a higher volume of exports during the first 8 months of this year compared to the same period last year. But other sectors recorded a decline of 10, 15 and even over 20%, which dragged down the entire export statistics.
Retail is growing
Turnover of goods in retail trade increased by 4.2% (at current prices) compared to the same month last year, which is equivalent to an increase in turnover during the first 8 months of this year compared to the same period last year. Compared to the previous month, the turnover in August increased by 2.1%. There was an increase in fuel sales by 6%, and non-food products by 2.3% while food turnover remained the same as in July. When we compare it with 8 months of the previous year, the turnover of food in retail and the turnover of consumer goods increased (by 7.3% and 9.37%) and the turnover of fuel decreased by 12% fuel prices). This indicates that the volume of traffic has recovered in relation to the large decline recorded during the state of emergency. However, this turnover is not the same as before the crisis: a significant jump in the sweep of furniture and construction materials was recorded, while the turnover related to the personal services sector (beauty salons, hairdressers, etc.) is still lower than before.
A good August is not enough to pull out the tourism industry
The situation in tourism in August has not changed compared to the previous period this year – the number of foreign tourists in Serbia is very low, and some of our tourists have decided to spend their holidays in the country instead of abroad. This is clearly seen in comparison with the situation during August of the previous year: while the number of foreign tourists was only 12.9% of the number at that time, domestic tourists increased by a quarter. On average, domestic tourists decided to visit the south of the country more – the largest increase in tourists was recorded in mountainous places, and the best destinations were Stara Planina, Rudnik, Zlatar, Zlatibor and Kopaonik. They are followed by spas, such as Sokobanja, Prolom Banja, Bukovicka and Vrnjacka Banja.
Even this increase in traffic by domestic tourists is not enough to change the statistics that say that this year is bad for the tourism industry: the total tourist turnover in August was only 65% of last year’s turnover. The biggest losers in this situation are Belgrade and Novi Sad, which were mostly turned to foreign tourists – there are few spa and mountain resorts that recorded lower traffic during August. But even good business in August is not enough even for them to get them out of trouble, since their turnover is still lower than during the first 8 months of the previous year, by 15% to 20%, Talas reports.
